Campbelltown NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,043,698 - Median unit price: $598,102 - 1‑year price growth: 14.4 % – strong recent upside. - 5‑year CAGR: 5.7 % / yr – steady longer‑term appreciation. - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % – analysts expect the upward trend to continue. - Days on market: *data not supplied*.

Signal: Sellers benefit from the 14.4 % annual price jump, while buyers must accept a relatively high entry price. The modest 3.1 % yield tempers enthusiasm for new purchases, nudging investors toward a “hold” stance until yields improve or price growth moderates.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $620 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.1 % - Vacancy rate: *data not supplied* - Demand rating: *data not supplied*

Implication: The 3.1 % yield signals average cash‑flow performance. Without a vacancy figure we cannot gauge occupancy risk, but the yield alone suggests investors should not expect strong income upside; the market is more suited to capital‑growth strategies than high‑yield rental income.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *data not supplied* - STR occupancy: *data not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *data not supplied*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot quantify the short‑term rental upside. Given the modest long‑term yield, investors should default to long‑term rental (LTR) until reliable STR data emerges.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: *data not supplied*

The 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast implies underlying demand drivers (likely infrastructure or population growth), but specific projects cannot be cited from the provided data.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5 % forecast materialises and rental demand strengthens, the upside could be:

• House price: $1,043,698 × 1.135 ≈ $1,184,000 (≈ $140k capital gain).
• Unit price: $598,102 × 1.135 ≈ $679,000 (≈ $81k capital gain).

Assuming rent rises in line with price growth, the gross yield could edge higher, improving cash‑flow prospects.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified aspect (from data) | Qualitative note | |------|------------------------------|------------------| | Vacancy risk | *No vacancy rate supplied* | Without a vacancy figure, income could dip if occupancy falls. | | Single‑employer dependency | *No employment data supplied* | If the local job market relies on a few large employers, any downsizing could pressure rents and prices. | | Supply pipeline | *No new‑supply data supplied* | A surge in new dwellings could dilute demand and compress yields. | | Rate sensitivity | Gross yield 3.1 % | Low yield means cash‑flow is more vulnerable to interest‑rate hikes. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: - Houses around $1.04 million (median). - Units around $598k (median). - Minimum yield target: Aim for ≥ 3.1 % gross yield to match the suburb’s baseline return. - Watch signals: 1. Release of any vacancy‑rate data. 2. Announcement of new infrastructure or housing projects. 3. Movements in the cash‑rate that could erode the thin 3.1 % yield. - Recommended strategy: Maintain a hold position. Acquire only if you can secure a purchase price that lifts the gross yield above 3.1 % (e.g., negotiating below median). Monitor the above signals; a rise in vacancy or a flood of new supply would tip the balance toward avoid, while confirmed infrastructure spend could justify a buy on the upside.