Nelson Bay NSW Property Investment
Port Stephens · 2315 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Nelson Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Nelson Bay NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — $942,500–$1,232,468 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) median with 7.9%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Nelson Bay has compounded at 7.9%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $942,500–$1,232,468 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 132 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $942,500–$1,232,468 (sources disagree, range shown — do NOT quote a single number) | Units: $742,300
- Gross yield: 3.2% | Net yield: 1.7%
- 5yr price CAGR: 7.9%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 6,141 | Owner-occupier rate: 69% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $700/wk | Days on market: 132 (worsening)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $621/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$90,602/yr
- vs long-term rent: $36,400/yr (+149% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Nelson Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $1,318,719 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Nelson Bay pull back 10-15% from $1,146,712, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lakemba (NSW): $1,373,914 median, 3.1% yield, 18.9% 1yr growth
- Cabramatta West (NSW): $1,231,328 median, 2.9% yield, 7.8% 1yr growth
- Guildford West (NSW): $1,243,404 median, 3.4% yield, 8.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Nelson Bay carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A boom market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $1,032,041 – $1,261,383
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 7.9% + 10yr CAGR 5.2%
- −Slow market (132 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (2574 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
269
2020
688
2021
613
2022
652
2023
352
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2315
Decile 6 of 10 — Average
Population
15,287
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
5/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Nelson Bay NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $700/wk median rent for Nelson Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.