Alphington VIC Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Alphington, VIC 3078 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 68/100 — Buy

Alphington rates as "Buy" due to tight rental market (0.3% vacancy).

Alphington sits in a growth phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 68 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the VIC market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $2,100,000 Median unit price: $994,368 Median weekly rent: $850/week Days on market: 57 days (worsening)

Alphington commands a premium position in the VIC property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 57 days on market, pointing to softer demand conditions.

Comparable suburbs: - Fitzroy North (VIC): Median $1,885,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Garden City (VIC): Median $1,798,300, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Glen Huntly (VIC): Median $1,735,500, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 2.1% Net rental yield: 0.6% Vacancy rate: 0.3% (stable) Rental demand: Very High

The rental market in Alphington is characterised by very high demand with a vacancy rate of 0.3%, which is well below the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending stable, maintaining steady conditions.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $175 with an estimated occupancy of 66%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $42,158 before expenses. Long-term rental at $44,200/year may offer comparable or better risk-adjusted returns given lower management overhead.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): 2.5% Price CAGR (5yr): 0.4% Capital growth (3yr forecast): 0.5% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Development activity consistent with long-term averages

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If Alphington maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $2,415,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (2.5% growth, 0.3% vacancy, 2.1% yield), Alphington offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Growth Vacancy risk: Low

Key risks: - Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $11,177/month - At 8%: $12,327/month - At 9%: $13,518/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Alphington pull back 10-15% from $2,100,000, with vacancy rising to 0.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Very High Safety score: 6.1/10 Walkability: 80/100 Owner-occupied: 34%

Schools: - Alphington Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - Alphington East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - Alphington West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - Alphington High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

Alphington is a highly sought-after residential area with good safety ratings and strong walkability. The 34% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — BUY

Alphington presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels.

Conditions: Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.1% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $1,890,000 - 2,310,000 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Alphington market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.