Carrum Downs VIC Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Carrum Downs, VIC 3201 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 63/100 — Hold

Carrum Downs rates as "Hold" due to tight rental market (1.5% vacancy).

Carrum Downs sits in a growth phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 63 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the VIC market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $790,000 Median unit price: $427,124 Median weekly rent: $590/week Days on market: 7 days (improving)

Carrum Downs sits within the mid-market segment in the VIC property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 7 days on market, indicating strong buyer competition.

Comparable suburbs: - Eumemmerring (VIC): Median $645,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Eynesbury (VIC): Median $690,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Ferntree Gully (VIC): Median $886,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 3.9% Net rental yield: 2.4% Vacancy rate: 1.5% (improving) Rental demand: High

The rental market in Carrum Downs is characterised by high demand with a vacancy rate of 1.5%, which is well below the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending improving, supporting landlord pricing power.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $175 with an estimated occupancy of 66%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $42,158 before expenses. This represents a 37% premium over estimated long-term rental income of $30,680/year, though STR comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): 0.4% Price CAGR (5yr): 8.4% Capital growth (3yr forecast): 9.5% Supply pipeline: Low

Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Carrum Downs maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $908,500 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (0.4% growth, 1.5% vacancy, 3.9% yield), Carrum Downs offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Growth Vacancy risk: Low

Key risks: - No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $4,205/month - At 8%: $4,637/month - At 9%: $5,085/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carrum Downs pull back 10-15% from $790,000, with vacancy rising to 2.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Average Safety score: 6.5/10 Walkability: 50/100 Owner-occupied: 29%

Schools: - Carrum Downs Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - Carrum Downs East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - Carrum Downs West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - Carrum Downs High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

Carrum Downs offers a balanced lifestyle proposition with good safety ratings and moderate walkability. The 29% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — HOLD

Carrum Downs offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk.

Conditions: Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.4%.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $711,000 - 869,000 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Carrum Downs market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.