Narre Warren VIC Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Narre Warren, VIC 3805 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 66/100 — Buy

Narre Warren rates as "Buy" due to strong growth fundamentals.

Narre Warren sits in a growth phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 66 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the VIC market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $800,000 Median unit price: $410,603 Median weekly rent: $570/week Days on market: 14 days (improving)

Narre Warren sits within the mid-market segment in the VIC property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 14 days on market, indicating strong buyer competition.

Comparable suburbs: - Eumemmerring (VIC): Median $645,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Eynesbury (VIC): Median $690,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0% - Ferntree Gully (VIC): Median $886,000, yield 0.0%, 1yr growth 0.0%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 3.7% Net rental yield: 2.2% Vacancy rate: 2.8% (stable) Rental demand: Moderate

The rental market in Narre Warren is characterised by moderate demand with a vacancy rate of 2.8%, which is near the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending stable, maintaining steady conditions.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $175 with an estimated occupancy of 66%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $42,158 before expenses. This represents a 42% premium over estimated long-term rental income of $29,640/year, though STR comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): 2.9% Price CAGR (5yr): 5.4% Capital growth (3yr forecast): 6.0% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Narre Warren maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.0%, median prices could reach $920,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (2.9% growth, 2.8% vacancy, 3.7% yield), Narre Warren offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Growth Vacancy risk: Moderate

Key risks: - No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $4,258/month - At 8%: $4,696/month - At 9%: $5,150/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Narre Warren pull back 10-15% from $800,000, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Above Average Safety score: 7.4/10 Walkability: 35/100 Owner-occupied: 36%

Schools: - Narre Warren Public School (primary): Rating 9.8/10 - Narre Warren East Public School (primary): Rating 9.3/10 - Narre Warren West Public School (primary): Rating 8.8/10 - Narre Warren High School (secondary): Rating 9.9/10

Narre Warren offers a balanced lifestyle proposition with good safety ratings and limited walkability. The 36% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — BUY

Narre Warren presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and moderate rental demand supports entry at current price levels.

Conditions: Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.7% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $720,000 - 880,000 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Narre Warren market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.