Carnarvon WA Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Carnarvon, WA 6701 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 69/100 — Buy

Carnarvon rates as "Buy" due to tight rental market (0.6% vacancy), attractive 8.5% gross yield.

Carnarvon sits in a growth phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 69 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the WA market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $284,169 Median unit price: $182,441 Median weekly rent: $465/week Days on market: 34 days (stable)

Carnarvon offers an accessible entry point in the WA property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 34 days on market, suggesting balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Comparable suburbs: - Karratha (WA): Median $276,112, yield 30.1%, 1yr growth -1.8% - Newman (WA): Median $369,000, yield 10.6%, 1yr growth 10.5%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 8.5% Net rental yield: 7.0% Vacancy rate: 0.6% (stable) Rental demand: Very High

The rental market in Carnarvon is characterised by very high demand with a vacancy rate of 0.6%, which is well below the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending stable, maintaining steady conditions.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $165 with an estimated occupancy of 66%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $39,748 before expenses. This represents a 64% premium over estimated long-term rental income of $24,180/year, though STR comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): 0.7% Price CAGR (5yr): 1.6% Capital growth (3yr forecast): 1.8% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Development activity consistent with long-term averages

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If Carnarvon maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $326,794 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (0.7% growth, 0.6% vacancy, 8.5% yield), Carnarvon offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Growth Vacancy risk: Low

Key risks: - No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $1,512/month - At 8%: $1,668/month - At 9%: $1,829/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carnarvon pull back 10-15% from $284,169, with vacancy rising to 1.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Below Average Safety score: 6.9/10 Walkability: 90/100 Owner-occupied: 35%

Schools: - Carnarvon Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - Carnarvon East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - Carnarvon West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - Carnarvon High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

Carnarvon provides affordable living with good safety ratings and strong walkability. The 35% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — BUY

Carnarvon presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels.

Conditions: Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 8.5% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $255,752 - 312,586 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Carnarvon market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.