Three suburbs still growing 18–26% while the capitals fall

If you only read the headlines this month, you'd think it was all bad news. Cotality's national index fell 0.4% in June — the third monthly drop in a row, led by Sydney and Melbourne.

But our own data tells a different story underneath. We refreshed all 6,459 suburbs on 17 July, and a set of affordable markets is still posting 16-26% growth with vacancy tight enough to hold rents up. This isn't a crash. It's a rotation — out of expensive, low-yield capital-city stock, into places where the numbers still work.

Three markets still running

Every figure below is from Estait's database as at 17 July 2026 — the same numbers you'll see if you look these suburbs up on the site.

Whyalla Norrie, SA — $331,046 +26.4% over twelve months · 5.03% gross yield on houses, 5.72% on units · 1.8% vacancy · 30 days on market

Port Augusta, SA — $329,351 +21.8% · 5.68% houses, 6.07% units — the best income story here · 1.8% vacancy · 30 days on market

Kelmscott, WA — $748,000 +18.4% · 4.58% houses, 5.39% units · 0.9% vacancy — the tightest rental market of the three · 18 days on market

The detail most lists leave out

All three have five-year compound growth between 1.1% and 1.9% a year. They went essentially nowhere for five years, then moved 18-26% in the last twelve months.

That's a re-rating, not a compounder — and it deserves different assumptions. A market that has just repriced can keep running, or it can sit still for another three years while rents catch up. Either way, buying it on the assumption it will repeat +26% next year is how people get hurt. The yield is what pays you while you wait.

See all six suburbs, with the full table →

Negative gearing: what actually changed

The 12 May federal budget confirmed the biggest shift to investor tax in a generation. The three things that matter:

• Negative gearing will be limited to new builds — but existing investments are grandfathered. If you already own it, your arrangements are protected.
• The 50% CGT discount is being replaced by an inflation-linked discount plus a 30% minimum tax on gains.
• It is not live yet. Implementation is signalled for around 2028-29 and still has to be legislated.

The direction is clear: the rules increasingly reward new builds, dual occupancy and cashflow over relying on a tax loss. Read the full breakdown →

General information only, not tax or financial advice — check your circumstances with your accountant.

The principle this week

Investors who do well in a market like this one aren't chasing headlines. They're buying on fundamentals: tight vacancy, low days on market, and a yield that actually stacks up at today's rates. When prices wobble, that discipline is the edge.

Check any address before you shortlist it. One address, five strategies, a buy/hold/pass verdict — your first full Report is free. Run a free Report →

— Pritesh, Founder, Estait AI

Suburb figures are from Estait's database as at 17 July 2026 and change frequently. Vacancy is SQM Research data published at a regional level. National index commentary is Cotality's. Estimates and general information only, not financial advice.