Prices fell in June. Rents didn't. Here's the gap.

June 2026 is the month the correction stopped being a forecast. Both major indices printed national price falls — Cotality −0.4%, PropTrack −0.3% — the clearest monthly drops since 2022, as this year's three rate rises (the cash rate now at 4.35%) finally bite.

But read the map, not the mood. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are sliding while Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide and Darwin are still up double digits over the year. And underneath all of it, rents keep climbing into a near-empty rental market. This week we also dig into the quiet revolution in short-stay rules — the “just put it on Airbnb” era is over.

The numbers that matter

• −0.4% — national dwelling values in June 2026, Cotality's largest monthly fall since December 2022.
• 4.35% — RBA cash rate, after three +0.25% rises earlier in 2026.
• +5.9% — annual rental growth to the June quarter; national gross yield now 3.7%.
• 1.3% — national rental vacancy in June; every capital under 2%.
• −16.2% — capital-city home sales year-on-year, with auction clearances slipping into the low 40s.

3 markets the data likes

Every figure here is from Estait's own suburb pages, refreshed this week. Notice how many come back HOLD, not BUY — that's the point.

Parafield Gardens, SA — Estait Score 64/100 (HOLD) House median ~$880,000 · 3.6% gross yield · 0.8% vacancy. Adelaide is the tightest rental market in the country; independent data (htag) lands within a whisker at $876,884.

Zillmere, QLD — Estait Score 62/100 (HOLD) House median ~$1.09M · 3.1% gross yield · $650/wk rent · 1.2% vacancy. Northern-Brisbane gentrifier; Brisbane is up ~13% over the year.

Ocean Reef, WA — Estait Score 65/100 (BUY) Premium coastal Perth · ~3.3% gross yield · 0.9% vacancy · median ~$1.51M. Thin sales make the headline growth number jumpy — verify in-tool. Perth's annual growth is still ~17%.

See the live Hotspot Scores on the Map →

Spotlight: short-term rental rules just grew up (in every state)

This week's rotation is STR. The headline: regulation has matured nationwide, and it changes the maths.

• VIC — a 7.5% short-stay levy (since 1 Jan 2025) collected by the platforms, plus mandatory registration on the Short Stay Victoria Register. No planning permit in most residential zones, and owners corporations can set rules on short-stay use.
• NSW — a 180-day cap on non-hosted short stays in Greater Sydney (hosted, owner on-site, is uncapped), mandatory STRA registration, and strata can ban non-hosted STR by 75% special resolution. Byron Shire is tighter at 60 days.
• QLD — no state levy, no statewide night cap and no state register — Brisbane is the most permissive capital in the country. But local body-corporate by-laws still bite, and council enforcement applies.
• WA — statewide register mandatory since 1 Jan 2025; from 1 Jan 2026, unhosted metro-Perth stays over 90 nights/year need council planning approval.

Check the STR rules for any address →

The big one: negative gearing is now law — but it doesn't apply yet

The 2026 Budget (12 May 2026) limits negative gearing to new builds and replaces the 50% CGT discount with an inflation-indexed cost base plus a 30% minimum tax rate. Two things every investor should hold onto:

• The changes don't commence until 1 July 2027, and anything you already held before 7:30pm on 12 May 2026 is grandfathered — your current treatment stays until you sell.
• New builds keep both negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount.

Between now and mid-2027, today's rules still apply. It's a reason to model your strategy properly, not to panic — run the long-term-rental, STR, granny-flat and dual-occ scenarios side by side and see what actually stacks up under each regime.

General information only, not tax or financial advice — confirm your own position with a licensed tax adviser.

3 ways to use Estait this week

1. Pressure-test a “hot” suburb. Pull its Estait Score and see whether the yield and forecast justify the hype — most come back HOLD for a reason.
2. Run the STR-vs-LTR maths honestly. Use the STR Check for the local rules, then a Report to compare net short-stay income against long-term rent for the same property.
3. Screen for tight supply. Sort the Rankings by vacancy and yield to find the markets where rents are still rising fastest.

Model every strategy on one address. Long-term rental, Airbnb, granny flat and dual-occ, side by side — with a buy/hold/pass verdict. Your first full Report is free. Run a free Report →

— Pritesh, Founder, Estait AI

Suburb figures are from Estait's database, refreshed this week, and change frequently. Macro figures (Cotality, PropTrack, RBA, SQM) are dated and attributed above. STR and tax rules are general summaries — verify for your specific address and circumstances. Estimates and general information only, not financial, tax or legal advice.