Aranda ACT Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,400,000 - Median unit price: $761,852 - 1‑year price growth: ‑4.9 % (price has fallen over the past year) - 5‑year CAGR: 3.7 % / yr (steady long‑term appreciation) - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (expected upside over the medium term) - Days on market: *Data not provided*

Signal: The recent‑year dip (‑4.9 %) creates buying pressure, while the 5‑year CAGR and 13.5 % 3‑year forecast indicate a longer‑term upward trend. Buyers can negotiate on price now; sellers face a short‑term head‑wind but benefit from the longer‑term outlook.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $695 / wk - Gross rental yield: 2.6 % - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided* - Demand rating: *Data not provided*

Interpretation: A 2.6 % gross yield is modest, suggesting stable but not high cash‑flow returns. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify rental risk, but the rent level relative to price points to a neutral rental market.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not provided* - STR occupancy: *Data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not provided*

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot assess short‑term rental profitability. Given the modest long‑term yield, investors should treat LTR as the default strategy until STR data emerges.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport links, employment base: *Data not provided*

Impact: The absence of specific infrastructure or employment information limits the ability to pinpoint demand catalysts. However, the suburb’s inclusion in a “Buy” scorecard implies underlying fundamentals are favourable.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % materialises:

• Projected median house price in 3 years:

• Potential capital gain: ≈ $189,000 (≈13.5 %)

• Yield scenario: Assuming rent stays at $695 / wk, the gross yield would rise to about 2.9 % as price appreciation slows, improving cash‑flow prospects.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified element | |------|--------------------| | Short‑term price dip | 1‑yr growth of ‑4.9 % indicates recent downward pressure. | | Modest yield | Gross yield of 2.6 % may not cover higher financing costs if rates rise. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate not supplied – unknown rental absorption risk. | | Supply pipeline unknown | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new units could pressure rents. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Higher rates would increase borrowing costs against a 2.6 % yield. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Around the median house price of $1,400,000 (or slightly below if a discount is available). - Minimum yield target: ≥ 2.6 % – aim for properties that can push the gross yield higher through renovations or better tenant mix. - Watch signals: 1. Confirmation of the 13.5 % 3‑year growth forecast (price trends, sales data). 2. Changes in the local vacancy rate or new supply announcements. 3. Reserve‑bank interest‑rate movements that affect financing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a house at or under the median price, hold for 3–5 years to capture the projected capital uplift, and focus on maintaining or improving the 2.6 %+ gross yield. Re‑evaluate if STR data becomes available or if new infrastructure projects are announced.