Scullin ACT Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Scullin, ACT 2614 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 65/100 — Buy

Scullin rates as "Buy" due to balanced market fundamentals.

Scullin sits in a correction phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 65 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the ACT market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $855,000 Median unit price: $425,730 Median weekly rent: $600/week Days on market: 37 days (stable)

Scullin sits within the mid-market segment in the ACT property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 37 days on market, suggesting balanced supply-demand dynamics.

Comparable suburbs: - Amaroo (ACT): Median $980,000, yield 3.7%, 1yr growth 3.8% - Banks (ACT): Median $865,000, yield 3.9%, 1yr growth 15.7% - Belconnen (ACT): Median $603,000, yield 4.8%, 1yr growth -7.9%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 3.6% Net rental yield: 2.1% Vacancy rate: 2.4% (worsening) Rental demand: High

The rental market in Scullin is characterised by high demand with a vacancy rate of 2.4%, which is near the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending worsening, warranting careful monitoring.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $170 with an estimated occupancy of 67%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $41,574 before expenses. This represents a 33% premium over estimated long-term rental income of $31,200/year, though STR comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): 1.9% Price CAGR (5yr): -1.4% Capital growth (3yr forecast): -1.5% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Development activity consistent with long-term averages

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If Scullin maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.7%, median prices could reach $983,250 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (1.9% growth, 2.4% vacancy, 3.6% yield), Scullin offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Correction Vacancy risk: Moderate

Key risks: - Negative price growth suggests a softening market

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $4,551/month - At 8%: $5,019/month - At 9%: $5,504/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Scullin pull back 10-15% from $855,000, with vacancy rising to 4.3% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Very High Safety score: 7.6/10 Walkability: 65/100 Owner-occupied: 27%

Schools: - Scullin Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - Scullin East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - Scullin West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - Scullin High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

Scullin is a highly sought-after residential area with good safety ratings and moderate walkability. The 27% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — BUY

Scullin presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels.

Conditions: Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 3.6% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current correction phase of the market cycle.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $769,500 - 940,500 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Scullin market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.