Yarralumla ACT Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — Yarralumla, ACT 2600 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 60/100 — Hold

Yarralumla rates as "Hold" due to weak growth indicators, tight rental market (0.6% vacancy).

Yarralumla sits in a trough phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 60 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the ACT market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $2,100,000 Median unit price: $1,685,977 Median weekly rent: $970/week Days on market: 75 days (worsening)

Yarralumla commands a premium position in the ACT property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 75 days on market, pointing to softer demand conditions.

Comparable suburbs: - Acton (ACT): Median $2,039,118, yield 1.5%, 1yr growth 10.9% - Barton (ACT): Median $2,111,467, yield 1.5%, 1yr growth -1.5% - Campbell (ACT): Median $1,600,000, yield 2.3%, 1yr growth -7.5%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 2.4% Net rental yield: 0.9% Vacancy rate: 0.6% (worsening) Rental demand: Very High

The rental market in Yarralumla is characterised by very high demand with a vacancy rate of 0.6%, which is well below the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending worsening, warranting careful monitoring.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $170 with an estimated occupancy of 67%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $41,574 before expenses. Long-term rental at $50,440/year may offer comparable or better risk-adjusted returns given lower management overhead.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): -0.4% Price CAGR (5yr): -8.7% Capital growth (3yr forecast): -9.8% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Development activity consistent with long-term averages

Infrastructure & transport: - Canberra Brickworks Development (under construction) - Light Rail Stage 2A (under construction) - Light Rail Stage 2B (planned) Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If Yarralumla maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $2,415,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (-0.4% growth, 0.6% vacancy, 2.4% yield), Yarralumla offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Trough Vacancy risk: Low

Key risks: - Negative price growth suggests a softening market - Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $11,177/month - At 8%: $12,327/month - At 9%: $13,518/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Yarralumla pull back 10-15% from $2,100,000, with vacancy rising to 1.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Very High Safety score: 6.9/10 Walkability: 90/100 Owner-occupied: 29%

Schools: - Yarralumla Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - Yarralumla East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - Yarralumla West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - Yarralumla High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

Yarralumla is a highly sought-after residential area with good safety ratings and strong walkability. The 29% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — HOLD

Yarralumla offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a trough phase with low vacancy risk.

Conditions: Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $1,890,000 - 2,310,000 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with Yarralumla market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.