Adamstown NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Median house price | $1,288,103 | | Median unit price | $800,505 | | 1‑yr price growth | +2.2 % | | 5‑yr CAGR | +9.4 % per annum | | 3‑yr growth forecast | +13.5 % | | Days on market | Data not supplied |

What it signals * Buyers face modest price appreciation this year (2.2 %) but a strong longer‑term track record (9.4 % CAGR). * Sellers can still command premium prices, yet the short‑term upside is limited. * The missing “days on market” figure prevents a precise read on market speed, but the combination of steady price growth and a low yield points to a balanced market where neither side has a decisive edge.

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## 3. Rental Market | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Median weekly rent | $750 | | Gross rental yield | 3.0 % | | Vacancy rate | Data not supplied | | Demand rating | Data not supplied |

Implication for investors * A 3.0 % yield delivers modest cash‑flow; investors should expect limited income relative to purchase price. * Without vacancy data we cannot gauge the tightness of the rental market, but the yield suggests the market is not in severe shortage.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity *Nightly rate, occupancy and estimated annual revenue – Data not supplied.*

LTR vs STR Because we lack STR metrics, we cannot quantify the STR upside. With a known 3.0 % long‑term yield, LTR remains the safer, data‑backed option until STR data becomes available.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers *Specific projects, transport upgrades, and employment base – Data not supplied.*

Current demand drivers The 5‑yr CAGR of 9.4 % and the 13.5 % three‑year forecast imply underlying demand, likely supported by regional employment and amenity factors typical of Adamstown, but we cannot cite concrete projects.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast materialises for houses:

* Projected median house price in 3 years $1,288,103 × 1.135 ≈ $1,462,300

* Capital gain $1,462,300 – $1,288,103 = $174,200 (≈ 5.5 % per annum)

If the same growth applies to units (starting at $800,505), the three‑year price would be about $908,000, delivering a $107,500 gain.

*Combined with the existing 3.0 % yield, total investor return could approach 8–9 % p.a. in the best‑case scenario.*

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* Entry price range – target properties between $800,000 and $1,300,000 (covers low‑end units and median houses). * Minimum yield to target – aim for ≥ 3.5 % gross to provide a buffer against rate hikes; otherwise, rely on capital growth. * Watch signals * Changes in the “days on market” metric (once released). * Interest‑rate movements – a rise above 5 % could erode cash‑flow. * Any announced infrastructure or large‑scale development that could lift demand. * Recommended strategy * Hold existing positions and monitor the 3‑year growth forecast. * For new investors, consider accumulating at the lower end of the price band (units around $800k) to maximise potential upside from both capital growth and modest rental income. * Re‑evaluate annually; if the yield improves or STR data emerges showing strong nightly rates and occupancy, shift part of the portfolio to a short‑term rental focus.