Alstonville NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,105,000 - Median unit price: $710,500 - 1‑yr price growth: +9.1% - 5‑yr CAGR: –11.9% per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: +13.5% (forecast) - Days on market: *Data not provided*

What it signals – Prices have rebounded strongly over the past 12 months (+9.1%), but the longer‑term trend remains negative (‑11.9% CAGR). The forecasted 13.5% growth over the next three years suggests the market expects a turnaround, yet the lack of a days‑on‑market figure makes it hard to gauge current buyer‑seller power. Buyers should negotiate cautiously; sellers can price competitively but must manage expectations about sustained growth.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $740 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.5% - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided* - Demand rating: *Data not provided*

Implication for investors – A 3.5% gross yield is modest for a regional suburb, indicating limited cash‑flow upside. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests that investors should rely on capital growth expectations rather than strong rental income.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not provided* - Occupancy: *Data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not provided*

LTR vs STR – Because no STR metrics are supplied, we cannot model short‑term returns. With a 3.5% gross yield on long‑term rentals, LTR remains the safer, data‑backed option until STR performance data becomes available.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: *Data not provided*

Demand drivers – The 13.5% three‑year growth forecast hints at anticipated infrastructure or employment improvements, but without concrete project details we cannot pinpoint the catalyst. Investors should monitor local council releases for any announced upgrades or new employers.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of +13.5% materialises and the 1‑yr momentum (+9.1%) continues:

• Median house price could rise from $1,105,000 to roughly $1,258,000 (13.5% uplift).
• Gross yield would stay around 3.5% if rents keep pace, delivering a modest cash‑flow boost.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (numbers where available) | |------|-----------------------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a rise could erode the already thin 3.5% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employer data supplied; if the local job market is concentrated, any lay‑off could depress demand. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings; a surge in construction could increase competition and push yields lower. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 3.5% gross yield, higher interest rates would quickly outstrip rental income, squeezing cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry price range: $1,000,000 – $1,200,000 (centred on the $1,105,000 median). - Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.5% gross (to match current market baseline). - Watch signals: 1. Release of any vacancy statistics for Alstonville. 2. Local council announcements of infrastructure or major employer projects. 3. Interest‑rate movements that could affect mortgage servicing costs. 4. Actual price performance versus the 13.5% three‑year forecast.

Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position, focusing on long‑term capital growth while keeping the property’s cash‑flow expectations realistic. Re‑evaluate if vacancy data emerges, if new supply accelerates, or if the 3‑year growth forecast proves inaccurate.