Bathurst NSW Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $651,056 - Median unit price: $479,891 - 1‑year price growth: –0.4 % (price essentially flat) - 5‑year CAGR: 7.3 % per annum (strong long‑term capital growth) - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (future upside expected) - Days on market: *data not supplied*

Signal: Buyers face little price pressure now because values have stalled over the past year, while sellers can still price competitively. The strong 5‑year CAGR and 13.5 % 3‑year forecast suggest that the market is poised for renewed appreciation, favouring investors who can hold through the short‑term dip.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $540 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.3 % - Vacancy rate: *data not supplied* - Demand rating: *data not supplied*

Interpretation: A 4.3 % yield places Bathurst above the national average for many capital cities, indicating a healthy cash‑flow environment. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield alone supports a steady income strategy for investors.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *data not supplied* - STR occupancy: *data not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *data not supplied*

Conclusion: Because STR metrics are unavailable, we cannot benchmark short‑term versus long‑term rental performance. In the absence of evidence that STR can exceed the 4.3 % LTR yield, the conservative approach is to prioritise long‑term rentals.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, employment base: *data not supplied*

Implication: Without specific infrastructure or employment information, we rely on the historical 5‑year CAGR and the 3‑year forecast to infer that underlying demand drivers (e.g., regional growth, university presence) are likely supporting the market. Investors should monitor any announced projects that could further boost demand.

## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5 % 3‑year growth forecast materialises and rental income holds at $540 / wk:

• Capital gain on a median house: $651,056 × 13.5 % ≈ $87,900 over three years.
• Annual rental income: $540 × 52 = $28,080 → gross yield stays at 4.3 %.

Combined, an investor could see roughly $115,000 of total return (capital + rent) on a median house over three years, assuming no major cost changes.

## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy figure supplied; a rise above 5 % could erode the 4.3 % yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data provided; reliance on a dominant employer would increase sensitivity to job cuts. | | Supply pipeline | Absence of new‑build data; a surge in unit completions could push yields lower. | | Rate sensitivity | Higher interest rates would raise borrowing costs and could dampen buyer demand, especially with the current –0.4 % 1‑yr price change. |

## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median – $479,891 for units or $651,056 for houses. - Minimum yield to target: ≥ 4.3 % gross yield (the current market level). - Watch signals: 1. Publication of vacancy statistics – a rise above 5 % would be a red flag. 2. Announcement of major infrastructure or employment projects – could accelerate the 13.5 % forecast. 3. Interest‑rate movements – tightening could pressure the –0.4 % recent price dip. - Recommended strategy: Hold existing positions and consider new acquisitions that meet the ≥ 4.3 % yield threshold. Prioritise properties with strong tenant demand (e.g., near the university or transport hubs) and keep a close eye on any emerging vacancy or supply data that could affect cash flow.