Canada Bay NSW Property Investment
Canada Bay · 2046 · Score: 70/100 · Buy
Canada Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Canada Bay NSW Investment Brief
BUY — $2,805,392 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median with 9.6%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Canada Bay has compounded at 9.6%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $2,805,392 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 44 days (roughly balanced conditions).
- Median house: $2,805,392 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $1,027,464
- Gross yield: 2.8% | Net yield: 1.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 9.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,308 | Owner-occupier rate: 64% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $1,500/wk | Days on market: 44 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $249/night | Occupancy: 53%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$47,805/yr
- vs long-term rent: $78,000/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sydney Metro City & Southwest (Operational)
- Sydney Gateway (Under Construction)
- WestConnex Motorway (Operational)
- New Intercity Fleet (NSW Trains) (Under Delivery)
- Transport: Burwood station 1.4km away
BULL CASE
If Canada Bay maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $3,226,201 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Canada Bay pull back 10-15% from $2,805,392, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- New Mexico (NSW): $3,120,000 median, 0.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Haymarket (NSW): $2,178,345 median, 2.9% yield, -1.4% 1yr growth
- Mount View (NSW): $2,300,000 median, 1.2% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Canada Bay presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current above_trend phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $2,524,853 – $3,085,931
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 9.6% + 10yr CAGR 7.5%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (3159 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
629
2020
313
2021
288
2022
762
2023
1,167
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2046
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
27,288
Education (IEO)
10/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
8/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Canada Bay NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $1500/wk median rent for Canada Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.