Coffs Harbour NSW Property Investment

THE MARKET

Coffs Harbour has compounded at 2.4%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $731,859 in 2021 is worth $824,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 45 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $927,742 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $824,000 | **Units:** $216,355 - **Gross yield:** 4.0% | **Net yield:** 2.5% - **5yr price CAGR:** 2.4%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 2.7%/yr - **Population:** 7,454 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 31% | **Affluence:** Average

- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 0.8% (stable) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $640/wk | **Days on market:** 45 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $195/night | **Occupancy:** 68% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$48,399/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $33,280/yr (+45% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Coffs Harbour maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $947,600 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Coffs Harbour pull back 10-15% from $824,000, with vacancy rising to 1.4% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Muswellbrook** (NSW): $580,000 median, 5.0% yield, 11.5% 1yr growth - **Leppington** (NSW): $1,000,000 median, 4.2% yield, -5.5% 1yr growth - **Merimbula** (NSW): $900,000 median, 4.0% yield, 1.0% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Coffs Harbour offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.5%.

- Entry range: $741,600 – $906,400 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.