Corrimal NSW Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,300,000 - Median unit price: $751,000 - 1‑year price growth: 16.2 % - 5‑year CAGR: 14.7 % per year - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % - Days on market: *Data not provided*

The market shows rapid capital appreciation (16.2 % in the past year and a 5‑year CAGR of 14.7 %). That momentum signals a seller’s market – sellers can command high prices, while buyers face steep entry costs. The forecasted 13.5 % growth over the next three years suggests the upward trend may continue, but the lack of days‑on‑market data prevents a precise read on how quickly properties are selling.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $812 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.2 % - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided* - Demand rating: *Data not provided*

A 3.2 % yield is moderate for the Illawarra region. It indicates that rental income will cover a portion of financing costs but will not generate strong cash flow on its own. Without vacancy data, investors cannot gauge the stability of that income.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not provided* - Occupancy rate: *Data not provided* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *Data not provided*

Because STR metrics are unavailable, we cannot quantify the revenue potential. Given the modest long‑term yield, investors should treat STR as a secondary option and only pursue it if they can obtain reliable local STR data that shows a clear premium over the $812 / wk long‑term rent.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects: *Data not provided* - Transport links: *Data not provided* - Employment base: *Data not provided*

The analysis cannot identify specific infrastructure or employment drivers. In the absence of this information, investors should assume that existing demand is driven by the broader Illawarra growth pattern rather than a single large employer or new transport corridor.

## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of 13.5 % annual growth materialises:

• House price scenario: $1,300,000 × (1 + 0.135)³ ≈ $1,800,000 (≈ $500,000 capital gain).
• Unit price scenario: $751,000 × (1 + 0.135)³ ≈ $1,040,000 (≈ $289,000 capital gain).

These gains would lift total returns well above the current 3.2 % yield, delivering strong combined cash‑flow and capital‑growth performance.

## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (with numbers) | |------|-----------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy rate supplied; a rise above the regional average could erode the 3.2 % yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | Employment data not provided; concentration in one sector would increase sensitivity to sector downturns. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new housing could depress prices and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | With a $1.3 m house, a 1 % rise in the cash‑rate adds roughly $13,000 to annual mortgage costs, squeezing the thin 3.2 % yield. |

## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target units around $751,000 and houses near $1,300,000. - Minimum yield target: Aim for ≥ 3.2 % gross yield to match the suburb’s baseline return. - Watch signals: 1. Release of any local vacancy statistics. 2. Announcements of new housing projects or infrastructure upgrades. 3. Movements in the Reserve Bank’s cash‑rate that affect borrowing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire a property at the lower end of the median price band, hold for 3‑5 years to capture the projected 13.5 % annual capital growth, and monitor rental market data to confirm the 3.2 % yield remains sustainable. Consider diversifying with a unit if you need a lower cash outlay, but keep the yield threshold in mind. If reliable STR data emerges showing a premium over $812 / wk, test a short‑term rental model on a secondary unit.