Erina NSW Property Investment

THE MARKET

Median house price in Erina sits at $1,300,000 with 32 days on market and a 0.6% vacancy rate. This is a tight rental market right now.

- **Median house:** $1,300,000 | **Units:** $226,834 - **Gross yield:** 3.2% | **Net yield:** 1.7% - **5yr price CAGR:** -4.1%/yr | **3yr forecast:** -4.6%/yr - **Population:** 28,435 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** High

- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 0.6% (worsening) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $800/wk | **Days on market:** 32 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $195/night | **Occupancy:** 68% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$48,399/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $41,600/yr (+16% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Erina maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,495,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Erina pull back 10-15% from $1,300,000, with vacancy rising to 1.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- Negative price growth suggests a softening market

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Wollongong** (NSW): $1,300,000 median, 2.4% yield, 4.0% 1yr growth - **Newcastle** (NSW): $1,578,000 median, 2.8% yield, 19.1% 1yr growth - **Marsden Park** (NSW): $1,200,000 median, 3.5% yield, 5.8% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Erina offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a trough phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.

- Entry range: $1,170,000 – $1,430,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.