Erina NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,385,357 - Median unit price: $709,810 - 1‑year price growth: 17.5 % (strong recent upside) - 5‑year CAGR: 9.1 % per year (steady long‑term expansion) - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5 % (continued appreciation expected) - Days on market: data not supplied

Signal: Buyers face a market where price appreciation remains robust, giving sellers leverage. Investors must weigh the high entry cost against the modest 3.0 % yield.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $798 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.0 % - Vacancy rate: data not supplied - Demand rating: data not supplied

Implication: The 3.0 % yield suggests stable but limited cash‑flow potential. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield alone indicates a balanced rental environment rather than a high‑demand hotspot.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: data not supplied - STR occupancy: data not supplied - Estimated annual STR revenue: data not supplied

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot model short‑term returns. Given the modest long‑term yield, LTR remains the safer default until STR data emerges.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport upgrades, employment base: data not supplied

Observation: Absence of specific infrastructure information means we cannot attribute demand to upcoming developments or major employers. The strong price growth suggests existing demand fundamentals are already supportive.

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## 6. Bull Case If the forecasted 13.5 % growth over the next three years materialises:

• House value projection: $1,385,357 × (1 + 0.135)³ ≈ $1,799,000 (≈ $413,000 upside)
• Unit value projection: $709,810 × (1 + 0.135)³ ≈ $921,000 (≈ $211,000 upside)

Capital gains of this magnitude would lift total returns well above the current 3.0 % yield, turning the suburb into a high‑growth asset.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – unknown exposure; a rise above 5 % vacancy would erode the 3.0 % yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data – cannot assess concentration risk. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings – a surge in supply could pressure both price growth and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | High entry prices mean a 1 % rise in interest rates could increase mortgage costs by several hundred dollars per month, squeezing cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target houses near the median $1.38 M and units near the median $710 k. - Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.0 % gross (the current market benchmark). - Watch signals: 1. Release of any vacancy statistics for Erina. 2. Announcement of new infrastructure or major employer projects. 3. Movements in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate that could affect borrowing costs. - Recommended strategy: Acquire at or below median price, hold for capital growth while collecting modest rental income, and reassess if vacancy data or supply pipelines shift the yield outlook.