Fennell Bay NSW Property Investment

Lake Macquarie · 2283 · Score: 51/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$801K
Rental Yield
3.8%
Vacancy Rate
2.7%
Median Weekly Rent
$660/wk
Median Unit Price
$692K
Population
1,780
Days on Market
42 days
Annual Growth
14.6%

Fennell Bay Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$499.5/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$73K
AI Investment Analysis

Fennell Bay NSW Investment Brief

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the Investment Scorecard sits at 51.0 / 100, indicating a neutral position.

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $630,000$680,000 (peer sources disagree by >10%). - Growth trend: *Data not provided.* - Days on market: *Data not provided.*

Signal: With a wide median price range and no clear growth or DOM data, the market appears balanced. Buyers should expect modest price movement, while sellers cannot rely on strong upward pressure.

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## 3. Rental Market - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided.* - Weekly rent: *Data not provided.* - Gross yield: *Data not provided.* - Demand rating: *Data not provided.*

Implication: Without rental metrics, investors cannot gauge cash‑flow potential. The lack of data suggests a need for on‑ground research before committing to a rental strategy.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not provided.* - Occupancy: *Data not provided.* - Estimated annual revenue: *Data not provided.*

Conclusion: We cannot determine whether long‑term rental (LTR) or short‑term rental (STR) would deliver a better return in Fennell Bay without specific STR figures.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects: *Data not provided.* - Transport links: *Data not provided.* - Employment base: *Data not provided.*

Drivers/Limits: No concrete information is available to assess what is currently attracting or restraining demand in the suburb.

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## 6. Bull Case If the suburb were to benefit from new infrastructure, stronger employment hubs, or a tightening of supply, the median house price could move toward the upper end of the range or beyond. For example, a 5 % price uplift from the lower bound ($630,000) would lift values to roughly $661,500. However, this scenario is speculative; no supporting data is supplied.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | *No vacancy data supplied; cannot quantify.* | | Single‑employer dependency | *Employment data not provided; risk cannot be measured.* | | Supply pipeline | *No information on upcoming developments; supply risk unknown.* | | Rate sensitivity | *Interest‑rate impact not quantified without cash‑flow figures.* |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases within the $630,000$680,000 median house price band. - Minimum yield to target: *Cannot be set without rental income data.* - Watch signals: 1. Publication of reliable median price figures (narrowing the current >10 % disagreement). 2. Release of vacancy or rental‑rate statistics for the suburb. 3. Announcement of infrastructure or employment projects. - Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold stance. Monitor the above signals; if the median price stabilises and rental data emerges showing a gross yield above 4 % – 5 %, consider a targeted entry. Conversely, if vacancy rises or supply accelerates, reassess for a potential exit.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals4.5/10
Low socioeconomic base — classic gentrification precondition
Moderate capital growth (6.0% CAGR)
Active development pipeline (6746 approvals) — supply attracting new residents
Strong public transport infrastructure — supports walkable gentrification

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
5.4%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
5.0%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
4.4%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 6.0% + 10yr CAGR 5.9%

Growth drivers
  • +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (6746 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

5 green7 yellow4 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.7 high impact
Days on Market
42 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
660 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
5.95 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
5.93 high impact
1yr Price Growth
14.6 medium impact
Population Growth
0.94 high impact
Median Household Income
1441 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
5.6 medium impact
Public Transport Score
30 medium impact
School Zone Quality
3.6 medium impact
Distance to CBD
103.75 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
4 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
73.8 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
3.77 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
2.27 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

1,253

2020

1,328

2021

1,498

2022

1,359

2023

1,308

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2283

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 4 of 10 — Average

Population

24,419

Education (IEO)

4/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

5/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Fennell Bay NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $660/wk median rent for Fennell Bay. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Fennell Bay PS
PrimaryGovernment
3.6/10
Lake Macquarie HS
SecondaryGovernment
4.3/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.

Fennell Bay NSW Property Market — Median, Growth, Yield | Estait