Goonengerry NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview | Metric | Figure | |--------|--------| | Median house price | $1,576,979 | | Median unit price | $1,601,463 | | 1‑yr price growth | ‑2.6 % | | 5‑yr CAGR | 15.2 % / yr | | 3‑yr growth forecast | 12.6 % | | Days on market | *Data not supplied* |

Interpretation * Buyers face a short‑term price dip (‑2.6 % over the last year) but can still benefit from the long‑term upside implied by a 15.2 % CAGR over five years and a 12.6 % forecast for the next three years. * Sellers must accept that recent price pressure may limit immediate upside; however, the strong forward‑looking growth forecast suggests they can still command premium prices if they wait for market sentiment to improve.

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## 3. Rental Market | Metric | Figure | |--------|--------| | Median weekly rent | $850 / wk | | Gross rental yield | 2.8 % | | Vacancy rate | *Data not supplied* | | Demand rating | *Data not supplied* |

What it means for investors * A 2.8 % gross yield is modest; it covers financing costs only if interest rates are low. * Without vacancy or demand data we cannot confirm the stability of that yield, so investors should verify local vacancy levels before committing.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity | Metric | Figure | |--------|--------| | Nightly STR rate | *Data not supplied* | | Occupancy (average %) | *Data not supplied* | | Estimated annual STR revenue | *Data not supplied* |

Assessment Because no STR metrics are available, we cannot quantify the STR upside. With a modest long‑term yield of 2.8 %, investors should treat LTR as the default strategy until reliable STR data emerges.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers *No specific infrastructure projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base figures are provided.*

Implication The 12.6 % three‑year growth forecast suggests underlying demand drivers—likely lifestyle appeal or regional population growth—but without concrete project data we cannot attribute the upside to a particular catalyst.

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## 6. Bull Case If the forecasted 12.6 % annual price growth materialises and rental demand remains strong:

*Capital growth of roughly $1.2 m over three years would lift the suburb into the high‑growth tier, improving both capital and income returns.*

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified concern | |------|--------------------| | Recent price dip | 1‑yr decline of ‑2.6 % could signal short‑term weakness. | | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a high vacancy would erode the already modest 2.8 % yield. | | Single‑employer or sector dependence | No employment data supplied; reliance on a limited job base would increase sensitivity to local layoffs. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings; a surge in supply could pressure both prices and rents. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 2.8 % yield, any rise in borrowing costs directly squeezes net cash flow. |

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## 8. The Play * Entry range: Target purchases around the median values – $1.58 m (house) or $1.60 m (unit). * Yield target: Aim for a minimum gross yield of 3 % to provide a buffer above the current 2.8 % level. * Watch signals: * Any published vacancy rate for the suburb. * Updates to days‑on‑market figures. * Confirmation of infrastructure or employment projects. * Shifts in the 3‑yr growth forecast or actual price movements beyond the current ‑2.6 % dip. * Strategy: Acquire at the median price, conduct a thorough tenant‑demand audit, and hold for 3‑5 years to capture the projected 12.6 % annual capital growth. If STR data later emerges showing strong nightly rates and occupancy, reassess the asset for a mixed‑use (LTR + STR) approach.

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*All statements rely exclusively on the data supplied; where data were missing, the analysis notes the gap rather than inventing figures.*