Goulburn NSW Property Investment
Wingecarribee · 2580 · Score: 54/100 · Hold
Goulburn Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Goulburn NSW Investment Brief
## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the key figure is the 4.0 % gross rental yield, which sits at a level that can cover most holding costs while still leaving room for capital growth.
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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $651,707 - Median unit price: $477,686 - 1‑year price growth: +5.1 % - 5‑year CAGR: ‑13.4 % per year - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5 %
*Days on market* is not supplied in the data set, so we cannot comment on how quickly properties are selling.
Signal for buyers: 5.1 % growth over the past year shows modest upside, but the five‑year track record of –13.4 % per year highlights that the market has been under pressure.
Signal for sellers: The negative long‑term trend suggests caution, yet the 13.5 % three‑year forecast indicates that the market may be turning, giving sellers a potential price‑rise window if they can time the market right.
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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $500 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.0 %
*Vacancy rate* and *demand rating* are not provided, so we cannot quantify those metrics.
Implication for investors: A 4.0 % yield is solid for a regional centre and typically covers mortgage interest, council rates and maintenance, leaving a modest net cash flow. The stable weekly rent of $500 supports this yield.
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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No data on STR nightly rates, occupancy, or estimated annual revenue are supplied. Without those figures we cannot compare long‑term rental (LTR) versus short‑term rental (STR) performance for Goulburn.
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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The supplied data set does not list any specific infrastructure projects, transport upgrades, or major employment hubs. Consequently we cannot identify concrete demand drivers or constraints beyond the price‑growth forecast.
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## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast materialises:
- House price upside: $651,707 × 1.135 ≈ $739,511
- Unit price upside: $477,686 × 1.135 ≈ $542,388
Assuming rent stays at $500 / wk, the gross yield would improve to roughly 4.5 % (because the price increase outpaces rent growth). This scenario would deliver both capital appreciation and a slightly higher cash‑flow return.
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7. Risks
| Risk | Quantified aspect (where available) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Vacancy risk | No vacancy rate supplied | Lack of vacancy data makes it hard to gauge rental security. |
| Single‑employer dependency | No employment data supplied | If the local economy relies heavily on one large employer, a downturn there could pressure both rents and prices. |
| Supply pipeline | No new‑construction data supplied | An unexpected surge in new dwellings could push prices and yields lower. |
| Rate sensitivity | Not quantified | Higher interest rates would increase borrowing costs and could dampen buyer demand, especially given the five‑year –13.4 % CAGR. |
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8. The Play
- Entry price range: $477,686 – $651,707 (units to houses)
- Minimum yield target: 4.0 % gross (the current market level)
- Watch signals:
- Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position. If the price falls below the median (especially for units at $477,686), consider adding to the portfolio to lock in the 4 % yield while waiting for the forecasted capital‑growth cycle to play out. Monitor the market for any new infrastructure announcements or employment shifts that could accelerate the upside.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 3yr growth 3.8% (discounted)
- +Above-average population growth (1.6%/yr)
- −Slow market (69 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (1697 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
240
2020
429
2021
439
2022
298
2023
291
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2580
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
31,629
Education (IEO)
4/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Goulburn NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $500/wk median rent for Goulburn. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Analyse a Property in Goulburn
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.