Hoxton Park NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,198,906 - Median unit price: $845,767 - 1‑yr price growth: +14.0% - 5‑yr CAGR: +3.5% per annum - 3‑yr growth forecast: +13.5%

*Days on market* is not supplied in the data set, so we cannot quantify how quickly listings are selling.

Signal: The double‑digit 1‑yr growth and a positive 3‑yr forecast indicate a seller‑favourable market. Buyers face steep price appreciation, while sellers can command premium prices.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $710 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.1%

*Vacancy rate* and an explicit demand rating are not provided.

Interpretation: A 3.1% gross yield sits near the low‑end of the national average for capital‑city suburbs, suggesting modest cash‑flow returns. The strong price growth, however, points to capital‑gain upside that can compensate for the modest yield.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No data on nightly STR rates, occupancy percentages, or estimated annual STR revenue are available. Consequently we cannot calculate an STR yield or compare LTR versus STR profitability for Hoxton Park.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The supplied data does not list specific infrastructure projects, transport upgrades, or major employers. The 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast implies underlying demand drivers—likely a mix of population growth and regional development—but we cannot name them without additional information.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 3‑year forecast of +13.5% materialises and rental demand remains stable:

• House scenario: $1,198,906 × 1.135 ≈ $1,360,311 → + $161,405 capital gain.
• Unit scenario: $845,767 × 1.135 ≈ $960,149 → + $114,382 capital gain.

If the gross yield holds at 3.1% and rent rises in line with inflation (≈2.5% p.a.), annual cash flow improves while the asset value climbs, delivering a combined return that could exceed 6%‑7% p.a.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate is not disclosed; a rise above the national average (~2‑3%) would erode the already modest 3.1% yield. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 3.1% gross yield, any increase in borrowing costs directly squeezes net cash flow. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new housing could pressure both prices and rents. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employer data provided, so concentration risk cannot be assessed. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median levels – $1.2 m for houses or $845k for units. - Yield target: Aim for a net yield ≥ 3.1% (gross) to offset financing costs. - Watch signals: * Days‑on‑market trends (once data becomes available). * Vacancy rate movements. * Interest‑rate announcements. * Any announced infrastructure or large‑scale employment projects. - Strategy: Acquire at or below median price, secure a loan with a fixed rate to mitigate interest‑rate risk, and hold for 3‑5 years to capture the projected 13.5% capital growth while monitoring rental market fundamentals for any yield improvement.