Inverell NSW Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $480,000 - Median unit price: $289,000 - 1‑yr price growth: 7.9% - 5‑yr CAGR: 14.1% per annum - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5% per annum - Days on market: *not supplied*

Signal: Strong recent and forecast growth (7.9% YoY, 13.5% forecast) points to a seller‑friendly environment in the short term. The lack of days‑on‑market data prevents a precise read on buyer urgency, but the price trajectory suggests demand is outpacing supply at present.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $450 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.9% - Vacancy rate: *not supplied* - Demand rating: *not supplied*

Interpretation: A 4.9% gross yield is modest but respectable for a regional centre. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify risk, but the yield indicates that long‑term rental (LTR) can cover financing costs for many investors.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *not supplied* - STR occupancy: *not supplied* - Estimated annual STR revenue: *not supplied*

Conclusion: Because no STR metrics are provided, we cannot model an STR case. With a known gross LTR yield of 4.9%, LTR remains the clearer path until STR data becomes available.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport / employment base: *not supplied*

Commentary: The analysis must rely solely on price and rental fundamentals. Any future infrastructure announcements could further boost demand, but none are listed in the data set.

## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year growth forecast of 13.5% per annum materialises:

• Projected median house price in 3 years:

• Potential upside: roughly +46% on today’s median house price.

• Rental upside: Assuming rent keeps pace with price growth, weekly rent could rise to about $620 / wk, lifting the gross yield to near 5.5% (still modest but improving).

## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (numbers from data) | |------|----------------------------| | Price‑growth reliance | 1‑yr growth is 7.9%; if growth stalls, capital gains could flatten. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate not disclosed – a rise could erode the 4.9% yield. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Higher rates increase borrowing costs, squeezing the modest 4.9% yield. | | Supply pipeline unknown | No data on new housing approvals; a surge in supply could pressure rents and prices. |

## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median house price of $480,000 (or slightly below if discounts appear). - Minimum yield to target: ≥ 4.9% gross (aim for 5%+ to buffer rate rises). - Watch signals: 1. Confirmation of days‑on‑market figures – a drop would signal accelerating demand. 2. Any announced infrastructure or employment projects. 3. Changes in vacancy rates from local council data. - Recommended strategy: Acquire at or under $480,000, hold for 2‑3 years to capture the projected 13.5% annual price growth, and rent long‑term to secure the 4.9% yield while monitoring vacancy and interest‑rate trends. If STR data emerges showing strong nightly rates and occupancy, reassess the LTR vs STR balance.