Jerrabomberra NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,192,725 - Median unit price: $744,493

Growth trend - 1‑year price change: ‑0.9% (downturn) - 5‑year CAGR: 6.7% per year (steady appreciation) - 3‑year forecasted growth: 13.5% (expected rebound)

Days on market: data not supplied.

Signal: With a recent dip (‑0.9%) but a solid 5‑year CAGR and a strong 3‑year forecast, the market currently favours buyers who can negotiate on price, while sellers should be prepared for modest concessions.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $830 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.6%

*Vacancy rate* and *demand rating* are not provided.

Implication: A 3.6% yield sits near the median for similar outer‑suburban locations, offering a reasonable cash‑flow base but leaving limited headroom for higher‑yield strategies. Investors should monitor vacancy trends before committing additional capital.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No STR‑specific data (nightly rate, occupancy, or annual revenue) are available. Consequently we cannot quantify the STR upside or compare it directly to long‑term rental (LTR). In the absence of evidence, LTR remains the default strategy.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The supplied data set does not list any infrastructure projects, transport upgrades, or major employment hubs. Therefore we cannot attribute demand to specific drivers beyond the historical 5‑year CAGR and the 3‑year growth forecast.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast materialises:

• Projected median house price in 3 years:

• Projected median unit price in 3 years:

• Rental income stays at $830 / wk, lifting the gross yield to roughly 3.9% on the higher price, assuming rents keep pace with inflation.

The upside hinges on the suburb delivering the forecasted price appreciation while maintaining current rent levels.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (numbers where available) | |------|-----------------------------------| | Price correction | 1‑yr decline of ‑0.9% shows the market can move negative in the short term. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate not disclosed; a rise could erode the 3.6% yield. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new developments; an influx of new housing could pressure prices and yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Higher rates increase borrowing costs, which could dampen buyer demand and compress yields. | | Demand data gap | Absence of a demand rating makes it harder to gauge future rental pressure. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target houses near the median of $1.19 million and units near $744,000. - Minimum yield target: ≥ 3.6% gross (or higher if you can secure a lower purchase price). - Watch signals: - Confirmation of the 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast (price trends, sales data). - Emerging vacancy data or rental‑rate movements. - Any announced infrastructure or development projects that could affect supply/demand. - Recommended strategy: Hold existing positions and consider new purchases only if you can acquire below the current median price, thereby boosting the yield above 3.6% while the suburb works toward its forecasted appreciation.