Kearns NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $1,092,500 - Median unit price: $745,820 - 1‑yr price growth: 9.0 % - 5‑yr CAGR: 3.7 % per year - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5 %

The 9 % price rise over the past 12 months shows strong short‑term momentum, while the 3.7 % 5‑year CAGR indicates modest long‑term appreciation. The 13.5 % forecast for the next three years suggests the market expects continued upside.

*Signal:* Buyers face a relatively high entry price but can anticipate capital growth; sellers can command premium prices in the current environment. Days on market is not supplied, so we cannot comment on market speed.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $680 - Gross rental yield: 3.2 % - Vacancy rate: *Data not provided* - Demand rating: *Data not provided*

A 3.2 % gross yield is modest for an investor, implying that rental income will cover only a portion of financing costs when interest rates are above that level. Without vacancy data we cannot quantify rental risk, but the yield suggests limited upside from pure cash‑flow.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not provided* - STR occupancy: *Data not provided*

Because nightly rates and occupancy figures are unavailable, we cannot calculate an estimated annual STR revenue. With no STR data, the safer assumption is that long‑term rental (LTR) remains the more reliable income stream for most investors in Kearns at this time.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport links, employment base: *Data not provided*

The absence of specific infrastructure or employment information limits our ability to identify concrete demand catalysts or constraints for Kearns.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year growth forecast of 13.5 % materialises, a median house priced at $1,092,500 could reach roughly $1,239,200 in three years (13.5 % increase). A median unit at $745,820 could climb to about $846,300. Coupled with stable rent levels, this would lift total returns well above the current 3.2 % yield.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Detail (with numbers) | |------|-----------------------| | Yield pressure | Gross yield sits at 3.2 %; any rise in borrowing costs above this level erodes net cash flow. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate is not supplied, so the property could experience higher than expected emptiness, further reducing returns. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming housing supply; a surge in new units could depress prices and yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | With a low yield, the investment is vulnerable to rate hikes that increase mortgage repayments. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target houses around the median $1,092,500 and units around the median $745,820. - Minimum yield to target: Aim for a gross yield of ≥ 3.5 % to provide a buffer over financing costs. - Watch signals: 1. Confirmation of the 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast in quarterly price reports. 2. Release of vacancy data for Kearns. 3. Changes in the Reserve Bank’s cash‑rate that could affect the 3.2 % yield margin. - Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position while monitoring the above signals. If vacancy data shows low emptiness and yields improve (e.g., through rent growth or price correction), consider adding to the portfolio. If interest rates rise sharply and yields stay at 3.2 %, re‑evaluate the position for possible exit.