Larnook NSW Property Investment
Ballina · 2480 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Larnook Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Larnook NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — $806,909 median with 11.6%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Larnook has compounded at 11.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $466,126 in 2021 is worth $806,909 today. Properties are sitting on market for 28 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,396,836 by 2031.
- Median house: $806,909 | Units: $451,653
- Gross yield: 3.9% | Net yield: 2.4%
- 5yr price CAGR: 11.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 6.7%/yr
- Population: 394 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $600/wk | Days on market: 28 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $513/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$74,907/yr
- vs long-term rent: $31,200/yr (+140% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Larnook maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $927,945 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Larnook pull back 10-15% from $806,909, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $982,570 median, 3.4% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
- Kinchela (NSW): $776,000 median, 3.2% yield, -0.5% 1yr growth
- Hat Head (NSW): $678,789 median, 3.6% yield, 37.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Larnook carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A boom market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $726,218 – $887,600
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 1yr growth 0.2% (heavily discounted — volatile)
- +Active market (28 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (1596 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
433
2020
361
2021
270
2022
310
2023
222
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2480
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
45,938
Education (IEO)
5/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Larnook NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $600/wk median rent for Larnook. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.