Lilyfield NSW Property Investment

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $2,640,118 - Median unit price: $1,371,332 - 1‑year price growth: 3.9 % - 5‑year CAGR: 8.6 % per annum - 3‑year forecast: 13.5 % growth

*Days on market* is not supplied in the data set.

Signal: Price growth is still positive (3.9 % YoY) and the medium‑term forecast (13.5 % over three years) points to a seller‑friendly market. Buyers should be prepared for competition, while sellers can expect modest price appreciation in the near term.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $1,050 - Gross rental yield: 2.1 %

*Vacancy rate* and *demand rating* are not provided.

Implication: A 2.1 % gross yield is low by Australian standards, indicating that rental income alone will not drive returns. Investors must rely on capital growth (13.5 % forecast) to achieve attractive total returns.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity No data are supplied for nightly STR rates, occupancy, or estimated annual revenue.

Conclusion: With no STR metrics available, we cannot quantify the STR upside. Until local STR performance is verified, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer choice.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers The data set does not list specific projects, transport upgrades, or major employers.

Interpretation: The strong 3‑year growth forecast suggests underlying demand drivers—likely proximity to the CBD (within 5 km), existing transport links, and a vibrant local economy—but we cannot attach concrete figures without further information.

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## 6. Bull Case Assume the 13.5 % three‑year growth materialises:

If rental yields improve to 2.5 % (from 2.1 %) while growth stays on track, total return could exceed 6 %‑7 % p.a.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified aspect | Why it matters | |------|-------------------|----------------| | Low rental yield | 2.1 % gross | Limits cash‑flow; investors rely heavily on capital growth. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Yield < borrowing cost if rates rise above ~4 % | Higher financing costs could turn the investment negative. | | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed | If vacancy rises above 3 %, cash‑flow pressure intensifies. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings | A surge in approvals could dilute price growth and push yields lower. | | Employer concentration | No employer data provided | If the suburb depends on a few large employers, any downsizing could affect demand. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: - Houses: $2.5 M – $2.7 M (around the $2,640,118 median) - Units: $1.3 M – $1.5 M (around the $1,371,332 median)

• Minimum yield target: 2.5 % gross (to provide a buffer above the current 2.1 %).

• Watch signals:

• Recommended strategy: Acquire a quality house or unit at the lower end of the entry range, hold for 3‑5 years, and aim for a total return of ~6 %‑7 % p.a. (capital growth + modest rental income). Re‑assess annually against the watch signals; if yields improve or supply tightens, consider adding to the position. If vacancy spikes or rates climb sharply, be prepared to tighten cash‑flow management or exit.