Menai NSW Property Investment
Sutherland · 2234 · Score: 65/100 · Buy
Menai Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Menai NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 2.9% gross yield on a $1,670,474 median.
THE MARKET
Menai has compounded at 5.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,272,097 in 2021 is worth $1,670,474 today. Properties are sitting on market for 28 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,193,609 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,670,474 | Units: $1,204,970
- Gross yield: 2.9% | Net yield: 1.4%
- 5yr price CAGR: 5.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 10,419 | Owner-occupier rate: 89% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $935/wk | Days on market: 28 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $370/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$54,048/yr
- vs long-term rent: $48,620/yr (+11% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Sutherland Hospital Redevelopment (planned)
- Menai Marketplace Upgrade (completed)
- ANSTO Lucas Heights Expansion (Nuclear Medicine) (under_construction)
- Heathcote Road Upgrade (Menai Road to New Illawarra Road) (approved)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Menai maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $1,921,045 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Menai pull back 10-15% from $1,670,474, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Cabramatta West (NSW): $1,231,328 median, 2.9% yield, 7.8% 1yr growth
- Guildford West (NSW): $1,243,404 median, 3.4% yield, 8.8% 1yr growth
- Hammondville (NSW): $1,352,552 median, 2.9% yield, -11.8% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Menai presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.9% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,503,427 – $1,837,521
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 5.6% + 10yr CAGR 6.5%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Active market (28 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (5667 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
1,113
2020
1,488
2021
1,323
2022
998
2023
745
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2234
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
30,648
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Menai NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $935/wk median rent for Menai. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Menai
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.