Menai Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Menai NSW Investment Analysis
HOLD
— $1,700,000 median with 7.6%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Menai has compounded at 7.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,178,657 in 2021 is worth $1,700,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 24 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,451,942 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $1,700,000 | **Units:** $313,901 - **Gross yield:** 3.1% | **Net yield:** 1.6% - **5yr price CAGR:** 7.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 8.6%/yr - **Population:** 43,925 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 34% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 2.2% (improving) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $1,000/wk | **Days on market:** 24 (improving) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $195/night | **Occupancy:** 68% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$48,399/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $52,000/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Menai maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.5%, median prices could reach $1,955,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Menai pull back 10-15% from $1,700,000, with vacancy rising to 4.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Newtown** (NSW): $2,000,000 median, 2.4% yield, 6.8% 1yr growth - **Brunswick Heads** (NSW): $2,200,000 median, 2.5% yield, 14.5% 1yr growth - **Wollongong** (NSW): $1,300,000 median, 2.4% yield, 4.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Menai offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,530,000 – $1,870,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.