Middle Dural NSW Property Investment

The Hills · 2158 · Score: 66/100 · Buy

Median House Price
$3.29M
Rental Yield
1.2%
Vacancy Rate
1.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$775/wk
Median Unit Price
$1.41M
Population
1,040
Days on Market
62 days
Annual Growth
16.2%
AI Investment Analysis

Middle Dural NSW Investment Brief

BUY1.2% gross yield on a $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.

THE MARKET

Middle Dural has compounded at 6.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 62 days (buyers have negotiating room).

  • Median house: $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $1,406,299
  • Gross yield: 1.2% | Net yield: -0.3%
  • 5yr price CAGR: 6.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
  • Population: 1,040 | Owner-occupier rate: 82% | Affluence: Very High
  • Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

  • Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
  • Median weekly rent: $775/wk | Days on market: 62 (worsening)
  • Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

  • NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
  • Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
  • Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
  • Transport: Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Middle Dural maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $3,784,584 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Middle Dural pull back 10-15% from $3,290,943, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

  • Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity

COMPARABLE MARKETS

  • Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
  • New Mexico (NSW): $3,120,000 median, 0.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
  • Burwood (NSW): $3,015,360 median, 1.7% yield, 2.5% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Middle Dural presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.2% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.

  • Entry range: $2,961,849$3,620,037
  • Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
  • Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Gentrification Index

Pre-gentrification2.5/10
High SEIFA decile — already upgraded or established affluent area
Moderate capital growth (6.0% CAGR)
Outer suburban location (30.9km to CBD) — slower gentrification cycle
Active development pipeline (16605 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

low confidence
1yr Forecast
5.4%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
5.0%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
4.3%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 6.0% + 10yr CAGR 7.0%

Growth drivers
  • +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
Headwinds
  • Slow market (62 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
  • High supply pipeline (16605 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

8 green5 yellow3 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
1.6 high impact
Days on Market
62 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
775 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
6.03 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
7.01 high impact
1yr Price Growth
16.2 medium impact
Population Growth
0.83 high impact
Median Household Income
2548 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
3.6 medium impact
Public Transport Score
4.5 medium impact
School Zone Quality
6.5 medium impact
Distance to CBD
30.9 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
10 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
81.5 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
1.22 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
-0.28 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

2,097

2020

3,552

2021

3,693

2022

3,561

2023

3,702

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2158

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage

Population

8,937

Education (IEO)

9/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

10/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Middle Dural NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $775/wk median rent for Middle Dural. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Middle Dural PS
PrimaryGovernment
6.5/10
Galston HS
SecondaryGovernment
6.9/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.