Middle Dural NSW Property Investment
The Hills · 2158 · Score: 66/100 · Buy
Middle Dural NSW Investment Brief
BUY — 1.2% gross yield on a $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) median.
THE MARKET
Middle Dural has compounded at 6.0%/yr over 5 years. Median sits in the $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) band today. Properties are sitting on market for 62 days (buyers have negotiating room).
- Median house: $3,290,943 (single source — OnTheHouse only, no peer to validate) | Units: $1,406,299
- Gross yield: 1.2% | Net yield: -0.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 6.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,040 | Owner-occupier rate: 82% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.6% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $775/wk | Days on market: 62 (worsening)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- NorthConnex Tunnel (Operational)
- Sydney Metro West (Under Construction)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 1 (Operational)
- Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 (Under Procurement)
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Middle Dural maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.1%, median prices could reach $3,784,584 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Middle Dural pull back 10-15% from $3,290,943, with vacancy rising to 2.9% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Pinkett (NSW): $2,650,000 median, 0.8% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- New Mexico (NSW): $3,120,000 median, 0.7% yield, 0.0% 1yr growth
- Burwood (NSW): $3,015,360 median, 1.7% yield, 2.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Middle Dural presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.2% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $2,961,849 – $3,620,037
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 6.0% + 10yr CAGR 7.0%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (62 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (16605 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-04
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
2,097
2020
3,552
2021
3,693
2022
3,561
2023
3,702
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2158
Decile 10 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
8,937
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
10/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Middle Dural NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $775/wk median rent for Middle Dural. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.