Mogo NSW Property Investment
Shoalhaven · 2536 · Score: 51/100 · Hold
Mogo Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Mogo NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $803,918 median with 10.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Mogo has compounded at 10.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $487,978 in 2021 is worth $803,918 today. Properties are sitting on market for 29 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,324,412 by 2031.
- Median house: $803,918 | Units: $727,600
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 10.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 19,333 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.8% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $560/wk | Days on market: 29 (stable)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $511/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$74,597/yr
- vs long-term rent: $29,120/yr (+156% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Mogo maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.0%, median prices could reach $924,506 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mogo pull back 10-15% from $803,918, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Mount Warrigal (NSW): $902,034 median, 4.3% yield, 2.8% 1yr growth
- Dharruk (NSW): $902,029 median, 3.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
- Tregear (NSW): $900,063 median, 3.0% yield, 11.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Mogo offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a stable phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.1%.
- Entry range: $723,526 – $884,310
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 10.5% + 10yr CAGR 9.8%
- +Above-average population growth (1.8%/yr)
- +Active market (29 days avg)
- −High supply pipeline (3974 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
782
2020
879
2021
911
2022
686
2023
716
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2536
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
19,333
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Mogo NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $560/wk median rent for Mogo. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.