Mosman Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Mosman NSW Investment Analysis
HOLD
— 1.5% gross yield on a $5,800,000 median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Mosman sits at $5,800,000 with 40 days on market and a 1.4% vacancy rate. This is a tight rental market right now.
- **Median house:** $5,800,000 | **Units:** $1,415,750 - **Gross yield:** 1.5% | **Net yield:** 0.0% - **5yr price CAGR:** -2.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** -2.9%/yr - **Population:** 29,500 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.4% (worsening) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $1,700/wk | **Days on market:** 40 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $320/night | **Occupancy:** 62% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$72,416/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $88,400/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Mosman maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $6,670,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mosman pull back 10-15% from $5,800,000, with vacancy rising to 2.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Negative price growth suggests a softening market - Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Dover Heights** (NSW): $7,400,000 median, 1.9% yield, 7.6% 1yr growth - **Rose Bay** (NSW): $4,900,000 median, 1.1% yield, -30.5% 1yr growth - **Bronte** (NSW): $5,800,000 median, 1.2% yield, 0.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Mosman offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a trough phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $5,220,000 – $6,380,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.