Mudgee NSW Property Investment
Lithgow · 2850 · Score: 49/100 · Caution
Mudgee Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Mudgee NSW Investment Brief
CAUTION — 4.3% gross yield on a $754,641 median.
THE MARKET
Median house price in Mudgee sits at $754,641 with 42 days on market and a 3.0% vacancy rate. This is a tenant-favourable market right now.
- Median house: $754,641 | Units: $513,216
- Gross yield: 4.3% | Net yield: 2.8%
- 5yr price CAGR: -15.3%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 11,457 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Above Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $630/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $655/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$95,585/yr
- vs long-term rent: $32,760/yr (+192% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Mudgee maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $867,837 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Mudgee pull back 10-15% from $754,641, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Dharruk (NSW): $893,474 median, 3.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
- Tregear (NSW): $881,536 median, 3.0% yield, 11.4% 1yr growth
- Blackett (NSW): $896,981 median, 3.0% yield, 9.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Mudgee carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.
- Entry range: $679,177 – $830,105
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.6%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
medium confidenceBasis: 3yr growth 0.5% (discounted)
- +Above-average population growth (1.6%/yr)
- −High supply pipeline (346 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
61
2020
84
2021
86
2022
83
2023
32
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2850
Decile 5 of 10 — Average
Population
19,146
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
6/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Mudgee NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $630/wk median rent for Mudgee. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.