Oak Flats NSW Property Investment

Shellharbour · 2529 · Score: 62/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$880K
Rental Yield
3.7%
Vacancy Rate
2.6%
Median Weekly Rent
$728/wk
Median Unit Price
$786K
Population
6,840
Days on Market
46 days
Annual Growth
6.3%

Oak Flats Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$502/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$73K

Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.

AI Investment Analysis

Oak Flats NSW Investment Brief

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the suburb scores 62.0 / 100 on the Estait Investment Scorecard, placing it in the mid‑range and signalling modest upside with limited downside.

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: *Data not supplied* (the source‑disagreement note indicates a range would normally be quoted, but no figures were provided). - Growth trend / Days on market: *Data not supplied*.

*Interpretation:* With no concrete price or sales‑speed figures, we cannot quantify current buyer‑seller dynamics. The scorecard’s “Hold” rating suggests the market is relatively balanced – neither strong buyer‑led pressure nor pronounced seller‑led urgency.

## 3. Rental Market - Vacancy rate: *Data not supplied* - Weekly rent: *Data not supplied* - Gross yield: *Data not supplied* - Demand rating: *Data not supplied*

*Interpretation:* Absence of rental metrics prevents a calculation of cash‑flow potential. The overall hold rating implies rental returns are likely average for the region.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: *Data not supplied* - Occupancy: *Data not supplied* - Estimated annual revenue: *Data not supplied*

*Interpretation:* Without STR data we cannot compare long‑term rental (LTR) versus short‑term rental (STR) profitability. The neutral score suggests STR would not dramatically outperform LTR.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / Transport / Employment base: *Data not supplied*

*Interpretation:* No specific infrastructure or employment catalysts are identified, which aligns with a moderate hold stance rather than a growth‑driven “Buy”.

## 6. Bull Case Given the lack of quantitative inputs, the bull case can only be described qualitatively: if future data reveal strong infrastructure investment, rising employment, or a tightening supply‑demand gap, the median house price could move toward the upper end of any forthcoming range and yields could improve. However, without numbers we cannot assign a concrete upside scenario.

## 7. Risks - Vacancy risk: Unknown vacancy levels could erode cash flow. - Single‑employer dependency: No employment data means we cannot assess concentration risk. - Supply pipeline: Absence of new‑development information leaves the future supply outlook unclear. - Rate sensitivity: As with most Australian suburbs, rising interest rates could pressure affordability and buyer demand.

## 8. The Play - Entry range: *Data not supplied* – investors should wait for confirmed median price figures before defining a price band. - Minimum yield target: Aim for a gross yield that meets or exceeds the portfolio’s hurdle rate (commonly 4–5 % for mid‑range suburbs). - Watch signals: Publication of a reliable median price range, evidence of new infrastructure projects, and any rise in rental demand metrics. - Recommended strategy: Adopt a cautious “wait‑and‑see” approach. Monitor upcoming council releases, transport upgrades, and rental market reports. If the median price settles toward the lower end of any disclosed range and rental yields remain above the target threshold, consider a selective acquisition; otherwise maintain the current hold position.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals4.0/10
▲Low socioeconomic base — classic gentrification precondition
—Moderate capital growth (6.7% CAGR)
▲Active development pipeline (3985 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
6.3%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
5.8%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
5.0%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 6.7% + 10yr CAGR 6.8%

Growth drivers
  • +Above-average population growth (2.3%/yr)
Headwinds
  • −High supply pipeline (3985 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

4 green8 yellow4 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.6 high impact
Days on Market
46 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
728 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
6.74 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
6.85 high impact
1yr Price Growth
6.3 medium impact
Population Growth
2.28 high impact
Median Household Income
1878 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
4 medium impact
Public Transport Score
4.2 medium impact
School Zone Quality
5.6 medium impact
Distance to CBD
85.02 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
4 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
72.3 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
3.71 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
2.21 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

▲ 0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

751

2020

910

2021

980

2022

691

2023

653

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2529

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 7 of 10 — Average

Population

29,134

Education (IEO)

5/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

8/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Oak Flats NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $728/wk median rent for Oak Flats. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Oak Flats PS
PrimaryGovernment
5.2/10
Oak Flats HS
SecondaryGovernment
4.7/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.