Ourimbah NSW Property Investment

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold. The single most important number is the -12.4% one-year price decline. Ourimbah is in a cooling market with a 60.0/100 scorecard. This is not a buy signal. It is a hold because the 3.9% five-year CAGR and 13.5% three-year forecast suggest recovery potential, but the current downturn demands patience.

## 2. Market Overview The median house price sits at $1,206,413, and the median unit price is $772,361. Over the past year, house prices fell 12.4%. That is a sharp correction from the 3.7% annualised growth over five years. Days on market data is not available, but the cooling market cycle signals that buyers have the upper hand today. Sellers are adjusting to lower prices. The 3.9% five-year CAGR shows long-term growth was modest, and the current drop means entry is cheaper than 12 months ago. For investors, this is a market to watch, not to rush into.

## 3. Rental Market The vacancy rate is 2.3%, which is tight but not critically low. Rental demand is rated high. Median weekly rent is $685, and the gross rental yield is 3.0%. That yield is below the 3.8% of comparable Barrack Heights and below the 2.9% of Yagoona. For an investor, a 3.0% yield is low. It means the property price is high relative to rental income. The high rental demand and improving vacancy trend are positives, but the yield does not cover holding costs well in a falling price market. You need a yield above 3.5% to justify a buy here.

## 4. Short-Term Rental Opportunity The median nightly STR rate is $643, but occupancy is only 40%. That gives an estimated annual revenue of roughly $93,878 (365 nights x 40% x $643). Compare that to long-term rental income of $35,620 per year ($685 x 52 weeks). STR gross revenue is higher, but the 40% occupancy is low. After management fees, cleaning, and vacancy costs, net STR income may be closer to $60,000–$65,000. LTR gives a stable $35,620 with lower risk. Given the low occupancy, LTR is the better play here. STR only works if you can lift occupancy above 60%.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers There are no major projects on file for Ourimbah. Transport is standard suburban access. The employment base is not specified, but the unemployment rate is 2.8%, which is low. The supply pipeline is low, meaning price growth has outpaced new supply. That is a positive for existing owners. However, the lack of major infrastructure projects limits demand drivers. The suburb is 77% owner-occupier, which means a stable resident base but less rental turnover. The distance from the CBD is flagged as a risk in the scorecard, but it is not within 5 km of the city centre, so that is a genuine limitation for capital growth.

## 6. Bull Case If the market recovers as forecast, the 13.5% three-year growth projection would lift the median house price from $1,206,413 to approximately $1,369,000 by 2027. That is a $162,587 gain. Combined with a 3.0% yield, total return over three years would be about 22.5% (13.5% capital growth plus 9% rental income). The low supply pipeline supports this upside because limited new stock means existing properties hold value. The 2.3% vacancy rate and high rental demand also support income stability. If interest rates fall, buyer demand could accelerate, pushing prices higher than forecast.

## 7. Risks The biggest risk is the -12.4% one-year price decline. If the market continues cooling, further drops of 5–10% are possible. The vacancy rate at 2.3% is not alarming, but if it rises above 3.0%, rental income pressure increases. The single-employer dependency is not quantified, but the low unemployment rate (2.8%) suggests a diversified base. The supply pipeline is low, so that is not a near-term risk. Rate sensitivity is high because the median house price at $1.2 million requires significant borrowing. A 1% rate rise adds about $12,000 per year in interest costs on an 80% loan. The distance from the CBD is a structural risk for capital growth, as the scorecard notes. Do not ignore that.

## 8. The Play Entry range: $1.0–$1.2 million for houses, $700,000–$800,000 for units. Minimum yield to target: 3.5% gross. At current yields of 3.0%, you are paying too much for too little income. Watch signals: vacancy rate dropping below 2.0% and days on market falling below 30 days would indicate a market turning. Recommended strategy: Hold existing properties. Do not buy now. Wait for price stabilisation or a further 5–10% drop. If you must buy, target units at $772,361 for a lower entry point and better yield potential. Focus on LTR over STR due to low occupancy.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.