Raby NSW Property Investment

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $973,935 - Median unit price: $753,318 - 1‑year price growth: 7.9% – strong recent upside. - 5‑year CAGR: 4.0% per year – steady long‑term appreciation. - 3‑year growth forecast: 13.5% – projected upside over the next three years. - Days on market: N/A (no data).

Signal: The combination of double‑digit recent growth (7.9%) and a solid 5‑year CAGR (4.0%) suggests buyer momentum, yet the lack of days‑on‑market data prevents a clear read on current supply‑demand balance. Sellers can still command premium prices, while buyers should be cautious of price peaks.

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $650 / wk - Gross rental yield: 3.5% - Vacancy rate: N/A (no data) - Demand rating: N/A (no data)

Implication: A 3.5% yield is average for the Sydney fringe, indicating that rental cash flow will cover a portion of financing costs but will not generate high surplus returns. Without vacancy data, we cannot quantify risk, but the yield suggests a neutral income outlook.

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - STR occupancy: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

Conclusion: With no short‑term rental metrics available, we cannot assess STR profitability. Given the suburb’s family‑oriented profile and limited tourism draw, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the more reliable strategy.

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects / transport: N/A - Employment base: N/A

Drivers/Limits: The data set provides no specifics on new infrastructure, transport upgrades, or major employers. In the absence of such catalysts, growth will likely continue to rely on broader Sydney‑wide demand and the suburb’s existing residential appeal.

## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year growth forecast of 13.5% materialises:

• House price upside: $973,935 × 1.135 ≈ $1,104,511 (≈ $130,576 increase).
• Unit price upside: $753,318 × 1.135 ≈ $854,514 (≈ $101,196 increase).

Assuming rents keep pace with price growth, the gross yield could stay near 3.5%, preserving cash‑flow while delivering solid capital gains.

## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy data – unknown exposure; a rise above 5% could erode the 3.5% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employer data – cannot assess concentration risk. | | Supply pipeline | No information on upcoming developments; a surge in new dwellings could pressure rents and yields. | | Rate sensitivity | With a 3.5% yield, a 1‑percentage‑point rise in mortgage rates could wipe out most cash‑flow, turning the investment marginal. |

## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median levels – $970k–$980k for houses or $750k–$760k for units. - Minimum yield to target: ≥ 3.5% (the current gross yield) to ensure cash‑flow covers financing costs. - Watch signals: 1. Release of vacancy statistics for Raby. 2. Announcement of any transport or infrastructure projects. 3. Changes in the Sydney interest‑rate environment. 4. New planning approvals that could increase supply.

Recommended strategy: Acquire a property at the median price, lock in a loan with a low fixed rate, and monitor the above signals. If vacancy remains low and no oversupply materialises, hold for capital growth (13.5% over three years) while collecting a stable 3.5% rental yield. If vacancy spikes or interest rates climb sharply, consider repositioning or exiting to protect capital.