Raglan NSW Property Investment

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the median house price of $683,252 anchors the decision. At that price the current gross rental yield (4.5%) is respectable, while price growth (4.8% y‑o‑y) signals modest upside without excessive risk.

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## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $683,252 - Median unit price: $517,141 - 1‑yr price growth: 4.8% - 5‑yr CAGR: 5.0% per annum - 3‑yr growth forecast: 13.5%

*Signal:* Price growth is steady and the 3‑year forecast points to a solid capital‑gain trajectory. Because days on market is not available, we cannot gauge buyer urgency, but the combination of modest growth and a healthy yield suggests a balanced market – neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s frenzy.

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## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $585 / wk - Gross rental yield: 4.5% - Vacancy rate: N/A - Demand rating: N/A

*Implication:* A 4.5% yield sits near the upper end of the national average for similar suburbs, indicating decent cash‑flow potential. Absence of vacancy data means investors should monitor upcoming vacancy reports before committing large capital.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: N/A - Occupancy rate: N/A - Estimated annual STR revenue: N/A

*Conclusion:* With no STR data supplied, we cannot quantify short‑term rental performance. Until local STR metrics become available, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer, data‑backed choice.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers No infrastructure, transport or employment‑base details are provided for Raglan. Consequently we cannot identify specific projects or job hubs that are currently driving demand. Investors should watch council releases and state‑level infrastructure announcements for future catalysts.

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## 6. Bull Case If the 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast materialises:

• Projected median house price in 3 years:

• Potential capital gain: ≈ $91,748 (13.5% uplift)

• If weekly rent rises 5% (to $614):

This scenario would deliver both capital appreciation and a modest yield lift, enhancing overall returns.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Quantified Concern | |------|--------------------| | Vacancy risk | Vacancy rate not disclosed – a sudden rise could erode the 4.5% yield. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data – if the suburb relies on a limited number of large employers, any downsizing could impact both price and rent. | | Supply pipeline | No data on upcoming developments; a surge in new housing could pressure prices and yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | With a 4.5% yield, a 1‑point rise in mortgage rates could compress net cash flow, especially for leveraged buyers. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: Target purchases around the median house price of $683,252 (or slightly below to capture a discount). - Minimum yield to target: 4.5% gross (or higher after accounting for expenses). - Watch signals: 1. Release of vacancy statistics for Raglan. 2. Confirmation of the 13.5% 3‑year growth forecast via quarterly price reports. 3. Any announced infrastructure or major employer projects. - Recommended strategy: Hold existing positions and consider new acquisitions only if the purchase price falls below the median or if the yield can be boosted (e.g., via renovation or lower financing costs). Prioritise long‑term rental income until reliable short‑term rental data emerges.