Roselands NSW Property Investment
Canterbury-Bankstown · 2196 · Score: 62/100 · Hold
Roselands NSW Investment Brief
## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the decisive figure is the 2.8 % gross rental yield. At under 3 % the return on cash is weak, so the suburb does not merit a fresh buy but can be retained while waiting for price‑growth to lift yields.
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2. Market Overview
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Median house price | $1,600,000 |
| Median unit price | $605,000 |
| 1‑yr price growth | +8.5 % |
| 5‑yr CAGR | +2.6 % per year |
| 3‑yr growth forecast | +13.5 % |
| Days on market | *Data not supplied* |
What it signals * Buyers face a steep entry price but can expect modest upside – 8.5 % growth in the last 12 months and a forecast of 13.5 % over the next three years. * Sellers benefit from recent price momentum, yet the low yield suggests limited buyer enthusiasm for cash‑flow investors. * Without days‑on‑market data we cannot quantify market speed, but the price‑growth figures point to a seller‑leaning environment for the short term.
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3. Rental Market
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Median weekly rent | $850 / wk |
| Gross rental yield | 2.8 % |
| Vacancy rate | *Data not supplied* |
| Demand rating | *Data not supplied* |
Implication for investors The 2.8 % yield is below the 4‑5 % threshold most investors target for cash‑flow properties. Even with a solid $850 weekly rent, the income does not offset the high capital outlay. Until vacancy falls or rents rise, the rental market offers limited upside.
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4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| STR nightly rate | *Data not supplied* |
| STR occupancy | *Data not supplied* |
| Estimated annual STR revenue | *Data not supplied* |
LTR vs STR – With no STR data available we cannot quantify the short‑term upside. Given the low long‑term yield, a well‑managed STR could improve returns, but the lack of evidence means investors should default to long‑term rental (LTR) until reliable STR metrics emerge.
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5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers
*No specific projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base figures were provided.* The 13.5 % three‑year growth forecast suggests underlying demand, likely driven by the suburb’s proximity to major retail (Roselands Shopping Centre) and transport corridors, but we cannot cite concrete initiatives.
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6. Bull Case
Assume the 3‑year forecast of +13.5 % materialises and the yield improves as rents rise.
| Scenario | House price | Unit price | Potential weekly rent (if yield rises to 4 %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current median | $1,600,000 | $605,000 | $850 |
| +13.5 % price lift | $1,816,000 | $687,000 | Approx. $1,040 / wk (4 % yield on house) |
If rents climb to $1,040 / wk, the gross yield on a $1.6 m house would rise to ~3.4 %, still modest but a clear improvement over today’s 2.8 %.
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7. Risks
| Risk | Quantified element | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Low yield | 2.8 % gross | Cash‑flow pressure; may not cover financing costs if rates rise. |
| Vacancy uncertainty | *No vacancy data* | Potential for higher empty periods than assumed. |
| Supply pipeline | *No data on new builds* | Unexpected new stock could push rents down and dilute price growth. |
| Interest‑rate sensitivity | Current yields < 3 % | A 1 % rise in borrowing cost could wipe out net cash flow. |
| Employment concentration | *No employer data* | If the suburb relies on a single large employer, any downsizing would affect demand. |
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8. The Play
* Entry range – Target purchases near the median: $1.6 m for houses, $605 k for units. Look for discounts of 5‑10 % to improve yield. * Minimum yield target – Aim for ≥3.5 % gross (i.e., $1,040 / wk rent on a $1.6 m house) to provide a buffer against rate hikes. * Watch signals – * Days on market (once data appears) – a rise suggests weakening demand. * Vacancy rate – any uptick erodes cash flow. * New development approvals – could increase supply. * Interest‑rate moves – watch RBA announcements. * Recommended strategy – Hold existing assets, avoid new purchases until either (a) rents rise enough to lift yields above 3.5 % or (b) a price discount appears. If a credible STR model emerges (e.g., nightly rate > $150 with >70 % occupancy), re‑evaluate the LTR vs STR decision.
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*All figures are taken directly from the supplied data; no assumptions beyond the provided numbers have been made.*
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.6% + 10yr CAGR 6.9%
- +Low rental vacancy (1.6%) — constrained supply
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −Slow market (76 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (9190 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
2,412
2020
1,873
2021
1,985
2022
1,502
2023
1,418
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2196
Decile 1 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
33,743
Education (IEO)
6/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Roselands NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $850/wk median rent for Roselands. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.