Shoalhaven Heads NSW Property Investment

Kiama · 2535 · Score: 55/100 · Hold

Median House Price
$1.00M
Rental Yield
3.3%
Vacancy Rate
2.9%
Median Weekly Rent
$705/wk
Median Unit Price
$708K
Population
3,248
Days on Market
42 days
Annual Growth
13.1%

Shoalhaven Heads Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market

Avg Nightly Rate
$635.19/night
Occupancy Rate
40%
Est. Annual Revenue
$93K
AI Investment Analysis

Shoalhaven Heads NSW Investment Brief

## 1. Investment Verdict Hold – the Investment Scorecard of 55.0 / 100 is the single figure that drives the recommendation.

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## 2. Market Overview - Median price: the data set does not disclose a specific median price or range for Shoalhaven Heads. - Growth trend & days on market: no figures are supplied, so we cannot quantify recent price movement or how quickly properties are selling.

*Implication:* with only the Scorecard available, the market appears neither strongly over‑ nor under‑priced. Buyers should expect a neutral environment, while sellers may need to price competitively to attract interest.

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## 3. Rental Market - Vacancy rate: not provided. - Weekly rent: not provided. - Gross yield: not provided. - Demand rating: not provided.

*Implication:* without rental metrics we cannot assess cash‑flow potential. Investors should treat the rental market as an unknown and seek on‑ground data before committing to a long‑term rental (LTR) strategy.

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## 4. Short‑Term Rental (STR) Opportunity - Nightly rate: not provided. - Occupancy: not provided. - Estimated annual revenue: not provided.

*Implication:* the absence of STR data means we cannot compare LTR versus STR profitability. Prospective investors should conduct a site‑specific STR feasibility study before deciding.

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## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers - Known projects, transport links, employment base: none are listed in the supplied data.

*Implication:* without identified infrastructure or employment drivers, we cannot pinpoint what is currently fueling demand or what may limit future growth. On‑the‑ground research into local council plans and major employers is required.

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## 6. Bull Case Given the limited data, the only quantitative anchor is the Scorecard (55/100). If the suburb’s fundamentals improve—e.g., new infrastructure, stronger employment, or rising rental demand—property values could climb above the current neutral stance. However, specific upside figures cannot be modelled without baseline price or rent data.

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## 7. Risks | Risk | Data‑based Indicator | |------|----------------------| | Vacancy risk | No vacancy rate supplied – uncertainty around rental absorption. | | Single‑employer dependency | No employment data – cannot gauge concentration risk. | | Supply pipeline | No information on new dwellings or approvals – unknown future inventory pressure. | | Rate sensitivity | The Scorecard sits just above the midpoint (55/100), suggesting moderate sensitivity to interest‑rate changes, but no price elasticity figures are available. |

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## 8. The Play - Entry range: unavailable – investors should target properties priced within the local market’s prevailing range once that data is sourced. - Minimum yield to target: cannot be set without weekly rent or price figures. - Watch signals: 1. Release of any council‑approved development plans for Shoalhaven Heads. 2. Publication of updated median price data or growth statistics. 3. Changes in local employment numbers (e.g., new business openings). - Recommended strategy: Maintain a Hold position based on the current Scorecard of 55/100. While the suburb does not present a clear buy signal, it also lacks red‑flag data that would justify an avoid stance. Conduct on‑site due diligence to fill the data gaps (median price, rental yields, infrastructure projects) before scaling exposure.

Gentrification Index

Early gentrification signals4.0/10
High SEIFA decile — already upgraded or established affluent area
Strong capital growth (55.7% CAGR) — above national average
Active development pipeline (565 approvals) — supply attracting new residents

Growth Forecast

high confidence
1yr Forecast
14.5%
p.a.
2yr Forecast
13.3%
p.a.
5yr Forecast
11.6%
p.a.

Basis: 5yr CAGR 55.7% + 10yr CAGR 27.8%

Growth drivers
  • +Above-average population growth (1.7%/yr)
Headwinds
  • High supply pipeline (565 new approvals) — may cap price growth

Suburb Metric Thresholds

7 green5 yellow4 red
Rental Vacancy Rate
2.9 high impact
Days on Market
42 high impact
Weekly Rent (house)
705 medium impact
5yr Price CAGR
55.72 high impact
10yr Price CAGR
27.81 high impact
1yr Price Growth
13.1 medium impact
Population Growth
1.72 high impact
Median Household Income
1384 medium impact
Unemployment Rate
3.2 medium impact
Public Transport Score
5.1 medium impact
School Zone Quality
6 medium impact
Distance to CBD
117.27 medium impact
SEIFA Advantage/Disadvantage
8 medium impact
Owner Occupier Rate
79.2 medium impact
Gross Rental Yield (%)
3.29 high impact
Net Rental Yield (%)
1.79 high impact

Macro Environment

Macro Indicators

Cash Rate

4.35%

0.25%

Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06

Suburb Supply & Demand

Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals

89

2020

189

2021

129

2022

91

2023

67

2025

New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply

Socio-Economic Profile

Source: ABS Census 2021

SEIFA Index · Postcode 2535

Most disadvantagedLeast disadvantaged

Decile 8 of 10 — Low disadvantage

Population

7,993

Education (IEO)

8/10

Econ. Resources (IER)

8/10

10-Year Investment Projection

Modelled on Shoalhaven Heads NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.

Pre-filled: $705/wk median rent for Shoalhaven Heads. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.

Schools

In your catchment

Shoalhaven Hds PS
PrimaryGovernment
6/10
Bomaderry HS
SecondaryGovernment
5.1/10

These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.

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Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.