South Grafton NSW Property Investment
Richmond Valley · 2460 · Score: 55/100 · Hold
South Grafton Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
South Grafton NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $471,377 median with 15.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
South Grafton has compounded at 15.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $229,329 in 2021 is worth $471,377 today. Properties are sitting on market for 41 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $968,899 by 2031.
- Median house: $471,377 | Units: $348,427
- Gross yield: 5.5% | Net yield: 4.0%
- 5yr price CAGR: 15.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 6,288 | Owner-occupier rate: 71% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $500/wk | Days on market: 41 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If South Grafton maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $542,084 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in South Grafton pull back 10-15% from $471,377, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Dareton (NSW): $331,618 median, 6.0% yield, -8.0% 1yr growth
- Reddestone (NSW): $546,500 median, 3.6% yield, -3.8% 1yr growth
- Werris Creek (NSW): $336,485 median, 6.0% yield, 4.7% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
South Grafton offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 6.0%.
- Entry range: $424,239 – $518,515
- Minimum gross yield to target: 5.8%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 15.5% + 10yr CAGR 10.3%
- −High supply pipeline (292 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-05
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
56
2020
72
2021
57
2022
46
2023
61
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2460
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
31,079
Education (IEO)
1/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on South Grafton NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $500/wk median rent for South Grafton. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.