South West Rocks NSW Property Investment
Kempsey · 2431 · Score: 52/100 · Hold
South West Rocks Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
South West Rocks NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.8% gross yield on a $782,023 median.
THE MARKET
South West Rocks has compounded at 3.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $658,442 in 2021 is worth $782,023 today. Properties are sitting on market for 135 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $928,798 by 2031.
- Median house: $782,023 | Units: $621,320
- Gross yield: 3.8% | Net yield: 2.3%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 5,058 | Owner-occupier rate: 74% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $565/wk | Days on market: 135 (worsening)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
Insufficient STR data for this suburb. Run a specific address analysis for property-level STR projections.
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If South West Rocks maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $899,326 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in South West Rocks pull back 10-15% from $782,023, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Berkeley (NSW): $807,810 median, 4.2% yield, 1.3% 1yr growth
- Lake Heights (NSW): $902,286 median, 4.0% yield, 6.5% 1yr growth
- Lake Illawarra (NSW): $967,845 median, 3.5% yield, 10.6% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
South West Rocks offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a recovery phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.3%.
- Entry range: $703,821 – $860,225
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.5% + 10yr CAGR 5.1%
- +Above-average population growth (1.9%/yr)
- −Slow market (135 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (685 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-07
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
93
2020
122
2021
174
2022
161
2023
135
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2431
Decile 3 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
5,628
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
3/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on South West Rocks NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $565/wk median rent for South West Rocks. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.