St Leonards NSW Property Investment

SUBURB INVESTMENT BRIEF — St Leonards, NSW 2065 LGA: Generated: 2026-04-11 | Estait AI Analysis

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall Score: 56/100 — Hold

St Leonards rates as "Hold" due to weak growth indicators.

St Leonards sits in a trough phase of the property cycle with an overall investment score of 56 out of 100. This assessment reflects the suburb's growth trajectory, rental market health, economic resilience, and infrastructure positioning within the NSW market.

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MARKET POSITION

Median house price: $1,592,617 Median unit price: $848,246 Median weekly rent: $795/week Days on market: 47 days (worsening)

St Leonards commands a premium position in the NSW property landscape. Properties are spending an average of 47 days on market, pointing to softer demand conditions.

Comparable suburbs: - Newtown (NSW): Median $2,000,000, yield 2.4%, 1yr growth 6.8% - Wollongong (NSW): Median $1,300,000, yield 2.4%, 1yr growth 4.0% - Newcastle (NSW): Median $1,578,000, yield 2.8%, 1yr growth 19.1%

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RENTAL MARKET

Gross rental yield: 2.6% Net rental yield: 1.1% Vacancy rate: 2.5% (worsening) Rental demand: Moderate

The rental market in St Leonards is characterised by moderate demand with a vacancy rate of 2.5%, which is near the national average of approximately 2.5%. Vacancy is trending worsening, warranting careful monitoring.

Short-term rental data indicates a median nightly rate of $195 with an estimated occupancy of 68%. This translates to an estimated annual STR revenue of $48,399 before expenses. This represents a 17% premium over estimated long-term rental income of $41,340/year, though STR comes with higher management costs and regulatory risk.

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GROWTH OUTLOOK

Population growth (5yr): -0.4% Price CAGR (5yr): -3.4% Capital growth (3yr forecast): -3.8% Supply pipeline: Moderate

Development activity consistent with long-term averages

Infrastructure & transport: - No major infrastructure projects identified. Transport: Well-connected inner-city location

If St Leonards maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $1,831,510 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

At current trajectory (-0.4% growth, 2.5% vacancy, 2.6% yield), St Leonards offers steady returns with moderate capital appreciation in line with broader market trends.

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RISK ASSESSMENT

Market cycle position: Trough Vacancy risk: Moderate

Key risks: - Negative price growth suggests a softening market

Interest rate sensitivity (est. monthly repayment on median house price, 80% LVR): - At 7%: $8,477/month - At 8%: $9,349/month - At 9%: $10,252/month

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in St Leonards pull back 10-15% from $1,592,617, with vacancy rising to 4.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

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LIVEABILITY

Affluence rating: Very High Safety score: 7.7/10 Walkability: 80/100 Owner-occupied: 31%

Schools: - St Leonards Public School (primary): Rating 10.0/10 - St Leonards East Public School (primary): Rating 9.5/10 - St Leonards West Public School (primary): Rating 9.0/10 - St Leonards High School (secondary): Rating 10.0/10

St Leonards is a highly sought-after residential area with good safety ratings and strong walkability. The 31% owner-occupier rate indicates a predominantly rental market.

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RECOMMENDATION — HOLD

St Leonards offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a trough phase with moderate vacancy risk.

Conditions: Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.

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KEY ACTION ITEMS

1. Shortlist properties in the $1,433,355 - 1,751,879 range for deeper analysis 2. Verify current vacancy and rental rates with local property managers 3. Assess STR regulatory environment with local council 4. Model cash flow at 7%+ interest rates before committing 5. Engage a buyer's agent with St Leonards market expertise for off-market opportunities

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.