Surfside NSW Property Investment
Shoalhaven · 2536 · Score: 52/100 · Hold
Surfside Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Surfside NSW Investment Brief
HOLD — $729,282 median with 13.5%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Surfside has compounded at 13.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $387,183 in 2021 is worth $729,282 today. Properties are sitting on market for 31 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,373,646 by 2031.
- Median house: $729,282 | Units: $529,184
- Gross yield: 4.1% | Net yield: 2.6%
- 5yr price CAGR: 13.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 11.9%/yr
- Population: 1,456 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 3.0% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
- Median weekly rent: $580/wk | Days on market: 31 (stable)
- Tenant market — vacancy elevated, negotiate hard on rent.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $596/night | Occupancy: 40%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$87,044/yr
- vs long-term rent: $30,160/yr (+189% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Surfside maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 2.1%, median prices could reach $838,674 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Surfside pull back 10-15% from $729,282, with vacancy rising to 5.0% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Barrack Heights (NSW): $900,668 median, 4.0% yield, 9.3% 1yr growth
- Berkeley (NSW): $807,810 median, 4.2% yield, 1.3% 1yr growth
- Dharruk (NSW): $893,474 median, 3.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Surfside offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a boom phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.6%.
- Entry range: $656,354 – $802,210
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market holding under 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 13.5% + 10yr CAGR 6.1%
- +Above-average population growth (1.8%/yr)
- −High supply pipeline (3974 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
782
2020
879
2021
911
2022
686
2023
716
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 2536
Decile 4 of 10 — Average
Population
19,333
Education (IEO)
3/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
4/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Surfside NSW data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $580/wk median rent for Surfside. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.