Thirroul Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Thirroul NSW Investment Analysis
HOLD
— 2.8% gross yield on a $1,900,000 median.
THE MARKET
Thirroul has compounded at 2.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,671,155 in 2021 is worth $1,900,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 52 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $2,160,182 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $1,900,000 | **Units:** $345,422 - **Gross yield:** 2.8% | **Net yield:** 1.3% - **5yr price CAGR:** 2.6%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 3.0%/yr - **Population:** 7,775 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 28% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 0.6% (improving) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $1,025/wk | **Days on market:** 52 (worsening) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $195/night | **Occupancy:** 68% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$48,399/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $53,300/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Thirroul maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $2,185,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Thirroul pull back 10-15% from $1,900,000, with vacancy rising to 1.1% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Newtown** (NSW): $2,000,000 median, 2.4% yield, 6.8% 1yr growth - **Brunswick Heads** (NSW): $2,200,000 median, 2.5% yield, 14.5% 1yr growth - **Newcastle** (NSW): $1,578,000 median, 2.8% yield, 19.1% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Thirroul offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a peak phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.0%.
- Entry range: $1,710,000 – $2,090,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.