Warilla NSW Property Investment

CAUTION — $958,984 median with 7.6%/yr growth over 5 years.

Warilla has compounded at 7.6%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $664,890 in 2021 is worth $958,984 today. Properties are sitting on market for 42 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,383,161 by 2031.

• Median house: $958,984 | Units: $689,176
• Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
• 5yr price CAGR: 7.6%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
• Population: 6,226 | Owner-occupier rate: 63% | Affluence: Low

• Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline

• Vacancy: 2.5% (stable) | Rental demand: Moderate
• Median weekly rent: $670/wk | Days on market: 42 (stable)
• Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

• Median nightly rate: $513/night | Occupancy: 40%
• Estimated annual STR gross: ~$74,843/yr
• vs long-term rent: $34,840/yr (+115% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

• No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
• Transport: Standard suburban transport access

If Warilla maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $1,102,832 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Warilla pull back 10-15% from $958,984, with vacancy rising to 4.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

• Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

• Mount Druitt (NSW): $1,132,714 median, 2.9% yield, 22.1% 1yr growth
• Mount Warrigal (NSW): $902,034 median, 4.3% yield, 2.8% 1yr growth
• Dharruk (NSW): $902,029 median, 3.2% yield, 7.5% 1yr growth

Warilla carries elevated risk that outweighs potential returns at current levels. A stable market combined with moderate vacancy risk warrants caution. Avoid new acquisitions unless significant discount to median pricing is achievable. Re-evaluate if vacancy falls below 2.5% or annual price growth exceeds 3%.

• Entry range: $863,086 – $1,054,882
• Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
• Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.