Woollahra Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Woollahra NSW Investment Analysis
BUY
— $5,000,000 median with 10.2%/yr growth over 5 years.
THE MARKET
Woollahra has compounded at 10.2%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $3,076,536 in 2021 is worth $5,000,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 59 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $8,126,022 by 2031.
- **Median house:** $5,000,000 | **Units:** $1,572,500 - **Gross yield:** 1.6% | **Net yield:** 0.1% - **5yr price CAGR:** 10.2%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 11.5%/yr - **Population:** 8,500 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** Very High
- **Supply pipeline:** Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- **Vacancy:** 1.4% (improving) | **Rental demand:** Very High - **Median weekly rent:** $1,500/wk | **Days on market:** 59 (worsening) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- **Median nightly rate:** $290/night | **Occupancy:** 62% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$65,627/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $78,000/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location
BULL CASE
If Woollahra maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $5,750,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Woollahra pull back 10-15% from $5,000,000, with vacancy rising to 2.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Premium price point limits buyer pool and increases interest rate sensitivity
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- **Mosman** (NSW): $5,800,000 median, 1.5% yield, -3.2% 1yr growth - **Rose Bay** (NSW): $4,900,000 median, 1.1% yield, -30.5% 1yr growth - **Bronte** (NSW): $5,800,000 median, 1.2% yield, 0.4% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Woollahra presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 1.6% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $4,500,000 – $5,500,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.