Casuarina NT Property Investment

THE MARKET

Casuarina has compounded at 11.4%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $377,418 in 2021 is worth $647,513 today. Properties are sitting on market for 54 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,110,899 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $647,513 | **Units:** $311,891 - **Gross yield:** 6.8% | **Net yield:** 5.3% - **5yr price CAGR:** 11.4%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 12.9%/yr - **Population:** 9,056 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 24% | **Affluence:** High

- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Strong population growth likely attracting new development approvals

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 2.5% (stable) | **Rental demand:** Moderate - **Median weekly rent:** $850/wk | **Days on market:** 54 (worsening) - Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $160/night | **Occupancy:** 62% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$36,208/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $44,200/yr (comparable — LTR offers simpler management)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Well-connected inner-city location

BULL CASE

If Casuarina maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.8%, median prices could reach $744,640 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Casuarina pull back 10-15% from $647,513, with vacancy rising to 4.5% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Anula** (NT): $620,000 median, 5.7% yield, 21.6% 1yr growth - **Berrimah** (NT): $473,682 median, 9.1% yield, 14.7% 1yr growth - **Brinkin** (NT): $638,691 median, 4.7% yield, 8.2% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Casuarina presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of strong fundamentals and moderate rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 6.8% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current growth phase of the market cycle.

- Entry range: $582,762 – $712,264 - Minimum gross yield to target: 7.1% - Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.