Caloundra QLD Property Investment

THE MARKET

Caloundra has compounded at 0.9%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $879,695 in 2021 is worth $920,000 today. Properties are sitting on market for 26 days (sellers have the leverage). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $962,152 by 2031.

- **Median house:** $920,000 | **Units:** $820,000 - **Gross yield:** 3.9% | **Net yield:** 2.4% - **5yr price CAGR:** 0.9%/yr | **3yr forecast:** 1.0%/yr - **Population:** 10,500 | **Owner-occupier rate:** 35% | **Affluence:** Above Average

- **Supply pipeline:** Moderate — Development activity consistent with long-term averages

RENTAL SNAPSHOT

- **Vacancy:** 1.5% (stable) | **Rental demand:** High - **Median weekly rent:** $688/wk | **Days on market:** 26 (stable) - Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.

SHORT-TERM RENTAL

- **Median nightly rate:** $220/night | **Occupancy:** 62% - **Estimated annual STR gross:** ~$49,786/yr - **vs long-term rent:** $35,776/yr (+39% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)

INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS

- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record. - **Transport:** Standard suburban transport access

BULL CASE

If Caloundra maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.0%, median prices could reach $1,058,000 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.

BEAR CASE

A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Caloundra pull back 10-15% from $920,000, with vacancy rising to 2.7% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.

KEY RISKS

- Distance from CBD may limit long-term capital growth potential

COMPARABLE MARKETS

- **Acacia Ridge** (QLD): $860,000 median, 3.6% yield, 10.3% 1yr growth - **Agnes Water** (QLD): $870,000 median, 3.9% yield, 10.9% 1yr growth - **Airlie Beach** (QLD): $850,000 median, 4.0% yield, -8.1% 1yr growth

THE PLAY

Caloundra offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a growth phase with low vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.4%.

- Entry range: $828,000 – $1,012,000 - Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5% - Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market holding under 35

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.