Carina QLD Property Investment
Brisbane · 4152 · Score: 75/100 · Buy
Carina Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Carina QLD Investment Brief
BUY — 2.6% gross yield on a $1,470,700 median.
THE MARKET
Carina has compounded at 3.5%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $1,238,290 in 2021 is worth $1,470,700 today. Properties are sitting on market for 40 days (roughly balanced conditions). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $1,746,730 by 2031.
- Median house: $1,470,700 | Units: $1,072,726
- Gross yield: 2.6% | Net yield: 1.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 3.5%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 11,678 | Owner-occupier rate: 70% | Affluence: Very High
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 1.2% (improving) | Rental demand: Very High
- Median weekly rent: $750/wk | Days on market: 40 (stable)
- Landlord market — rents likely to keep rising.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $251/night | Occupancy: 66%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$60,072/yr
- vs long-term rent: $39,000/yr (+54% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- Cross River Rail (Brisbane) (Under Construction)
- Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games Infrastructure (Announced)
- Transport: Murarrie station 2.4km away
BULL CASE
If Carina maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 0.8%, median prices could reach $1,691,305 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Carina pull back 10-15% from $1,470,700, with vacancy rising to 2.2% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- Flood risk: HIGH (qld_arcgis) — order a flood certificate for the specific address before commit
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Birkdale (QLD): $1,384,425 median, 2.9% yield, 11.2% 1yr growth
- Wishart (QLD): $1,554,141 median, 2.8% yield, 23.1% 1yr growth
- Scarborough (QLD): $1,362,047 median, 2.7% yield, 26.0% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Carina presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of solid fundamentals and very high rental demand supports entry at current price levels. Proceed with due diligence on specific properties. Target gross yields above 2.6% and prioritise properties with value-add potential. Consider timing entry around the current cooling phase of the market cycle.
- Entry range: $1,323,630 – $1,617,770
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy staying below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
high confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 3.5% + 10yr CAGR 4.5%
- +Very tight rental market (vacancy 1.2%) — upward price pressure
- +Premium transport infrastructure — supports long-term capital growth
- −High supply pipeline (39794 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
7,221
2020
8,891
2021
8,353
2022
8,044
2023
7,285
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4152
Decile 9 of 10 — Low disadvantage
Population
47,570
Education (IEO)
9/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
9/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Carina QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $750/wk median rent for Carina. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Carina
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.