Churchill QLD Property Investment
Scenic Rim · 4305 · Score: 53/100 · Hold
Churchill Short-Term Rental (Airbnb) Market
Estimated revenue assumes year-round availability. Non-hosted short-stays are night-capped in some councils (e.g. 60 nights across most of Byron Shire, 180 in Ballina, Muswellbrook and parts of Greater Sydney) and levied in Victoria — the legal cap can cut achievable income well below this figure. Run STR Check for the rules on a specific address.
Churchill QLD Investment Brief
HOLD — 3.6% gross yield on a $815,384 median.
THE MARKET
Churchill has compounded at 2.0%/yr over 5 years — a house that cost $738,518 in 2021 is worth $815,384 today. Properties are sitting on market for 76 days (buyers have negotiating room). At the same growth rate, today's median reaches $900,250 by 2031.
- Median house: $815,384 | Units: $655,734
- Gross yield: 3.6% | Net yield: 2.1%
- 5yr price CAGR: 2.0%/yr | 3yr forecast: 13.5%/yr
- Population: 1,842 | Owner-occupier rate: 58% | Affluence: Below Average
- Supply pipeline: Low — Price growth outpacing new supply, limited development pipeline
RENTAL SNAPSHOT
- Vacancy: 2.0% (improving) | Rental demand: High
- Median weekly rent: $573/wk | Days on market: 76 (worsening)
- Balanced market — vacancy manageable but monitor trend.
SHORT-TERM RENTAL
- Median nightly rate: $386/night | Occupancy: 44%
- Estimated annual STR gross: ~$62,032/yr
- vs long-term rent: $29,796/yr (+108% STR premium — factor in higher management costs)
INFRASTRUCTURE & CATALYSTS
- No major confirmed infrastructure projects on record.
- Transport: Standard suburban transport access
BULL CASE
If Churchill maintains 3%+ annual growth and vacancy stays below 1.4%, median prices could reach $937,692 within 3 years with yields compressing slightly as capital values rise.
BEAR CASE
A market correction or interest rate shock could see prices in Churchill pull back 10-15% from $815,384, with vacancy rising to 3.6% and rental yields softening as tenants gain leverage.
KEY RISKS
- No significant risk factors identified for this suburb
COMPARABLE MARKETS
- Ellen Grove (QLD): $915,856 median, 3.4% yield, 18.6% 1yr growth
- Flagstone (QLD): $997,635 median, 3.3% yield, 15.1% 1yr growth
- Silkstone (QLD): $836,878 median, 3.4% yield, 19.5% 1yr growth
THE PLAY
Churchill offers balanced fundamentals but does not present an urgent buying signal. The market is in a cooling phase with moderate vacancy risk. Monitor vacancy trends and price movements over the next 6-12 months. Only enter if a property can be acquired at or below median pricing with yields exceeding 4.2%.
- Entry range: $733,846 – $896,922
- Minimum gross yield to target: 4.5%
- Watch signal: vacancy dropping below 2% and days on market falling below 35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. Seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Gentrification Index
Growth Forecast
low confidenceBasis: 5yr CAGR 2.0% + 10yr CAGR 2.8%
- +Low rental vacancy (2.0%) — constrained supply
- −Slow market (76 days avg) — buyer hesitancy
- −High supply pipeline (1703 new approvals) — may cap price growth
Suburb Metric Thresholds
Macro Environment
Macro Indicators
Cash Rate
4.35%
▲ 0.25%Cash rate as at 2026-05-06 · Credit data 2026-06
Suburb Supply & Demand
Suburb Supply Pipeline — New Dwelling Approvals
172
2020
316
2021
291
2022
315
2023
609
2025
New dwelling approvals — higher numbers mean more future supply
Socio-Economic Profile
Source: ABS Census 2021SEIFA Index · Postcode 4305
Decile 2 of 10 — High disadvantage
Population
64,356
Education (IEO)
2/10
Econ. Resources (IER)
2/10
10-Year Investment Projection
Modelled on Churchill QLD data — rent, capital growth, tax, and depreciation over 10 years.
Pre-filled: $573/wk median rent for Churchill. Capital growth and rent increase are editable assumptions.
Schools
In your catchment
These are the government-school zones containing this suburb centroid. Specific addresses within the suburb may fall in different catchments — confirm with the school directly.
Nearby Suburbs
Analyse a Property in Churchill
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Analyse a Property →Data sourced from ABS, state government property sales, and Airbnb market analytics. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.