East Mackay QLD Property Investment

---

## 2. Market Overview - Median house price: $681,842 - Median unit price: $419,461 - 1‑year price growth: +18.2 % (strong short‑term upside) - 5‑year CAGR: +0.8 % per year (very modest long‑term trend) - 3‑year growth forecast: +13.5 % (analyst outlook)

*Days on market* is not supplied, so we cannot quantify market speed. The contrast between a high 1‑year gain (18.2 %) and a flat 5‑year CAGR (0.8 %) suggests recent momentum but limited sustained appreciation. For buyers, the short‑term price surge may price‑out entry; for sellers, the recent uplift offers a timely exit. The modest long‑term trend signals that price appreciation alone should not drive the investment thesis.

---

## 3. Rental Market - Median weekly rent: $698 / wk - Gross rental yield: 5.3 % - Vacancy rate: not provided (cannot comment) - Demand rating: implied moderate‑high – a 5.3 % yield sits above many capital‑city suburbs, indicating solid rental demand.

*Interpretation:* The yield supports a cash‑flow‑positive position even if vacancy rises modestly. Investors should monitor vacancy trends once data become available.

---

## 4. Short‑Term Rental Opportunity - STR nightly rate: not provided - STR occupancy: not provided - Estimated annual STR revenue: not calculable

*Conclusion:* With no STR metrics, we cannot quantify the short‑term rental upside. Given the strong long‑term yield (5.3 %) and lack of STR data, long‑term rental (LTR) remains the safer focus for now.

---

## 5. Infrastructure & Growth Drivers No specific projects, transport upgrades, or employment‑base figures are supplied. The 3‑year forecast of +13.5 % growth implies that analysts expect underlying demand drivers—potentially infrastructure or employment—to materialise, but we cannot detail them.

---

## 6. Bull Case If the 3‑year forecast of +13.5 % materialises:

• Projected median house price: $681,842 × 1.135 ≈ $773,000
• Projected median unit price: $419,461 × 1.135 ≈ $476,000

Combined with the existing 5.3 % yield, an investor buying at today’s median could see both capital growth (≈ +13.5 % over three years) and a steady income stream.

---

## 7. Risks | Risk | Numerical Indicator | Impact | |------|---------------------|--------| | Price volatility | 1‑yr growth +18.2 % vs 5‑yr CAGR +0.8 % | Recent surge may reverse if long‑term trend reasserts. | | Vacancy uncertainty | Vacancy rate not supplied | Higher than expected vacancy could erode the 5.3 % yield. | | Supply pipeline | No data on new dwellings | A surge in new housing could pressure rents and yields. | | Interest‑rate sensitivity | Yield 5.3 % provides a modest buffer | Rising rates could squeeze cash flow if borrowing costs exceed yield. | | Economic concentration | No employer data provided | If the suburb relies on a single large employer, any downturn there would affect demand. |

---

## 8. The Play - Entry price range – Houses: $650,000 – $720,000; Units: $400,000 – $450,000. - Minimum yield target – ≥ 5 % gross (to preserve a cushion above typical financing costs). - Watch signals – Emerging vacancy data, announcements of new housing supply, any change to the 3‑year growth forecast, and movements in the cash‑rate. - Recommended strategy – Existing owners should hold to capture the 5.3 % yield while monitoring the above signals. New investors should consider entering at the lower end of the price band to lock in the yield and benefit from potential upside if the 13.5 % three‑year growth materialises.